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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ jaguars week 6, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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IND logo
INDColts
3-2
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0
37
JAXJaguars
3-2
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
3
0
14
20
Jaguars
0
21
10
6
37

Spread

JAX logo
-4

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
354
233
Total Plays
75
62
Yards / Play
4.7
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.09
Passing Yards
310
148
Comp/Att
33/55(60%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.12
Rushing Yards
44
85
Rush Attempts
17
29
Yards / Rush
2.6
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
14
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
35%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-19.17
-3.77
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-19
-33
Sack EPA
-8.41
-5.57
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
46
25
Penalty EPA
-6.06
-3.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
JAX logo
Jaguars-4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.7%
Cover Probability
51.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+161
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,409
Home Field
+38.8
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.0
Home QB Adjustment
+6.5
Away QB Adjustment
+15.5
Market Regression
-4.2
Final Difference
126.7
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.5
Value
Ptile
10/04
2.2
61
10/11
0.5
49
10/18
-0.8
40
10/25
-5.3
14
12/20
-0.3
44
12/05
1.6
65
01/08
-2.7
33
12/24
6.0
89
01/01
-5.5
14
09/24
-3.5
26
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.5
Value
Ptile
12/22
4.9
85
01/01
-2.7
30
01/07
-1.8
40
01/14
-0.8
47
01/21
-2.1
36
09/10
1.7
61
09/17
-5.3
17
09/24
3.0
69
10/01
2.3
65
10/08
2.7
68

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Colts logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
11
16
Yards / Game
14
19
Passing Yards / Game
14
20
Rushing Yards / Game
10
9

EPA

EPA / Play
17
14
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
21
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
18
Interceptions / Game
6
12
Fumbles / Game
16
13
Turnover EPA / Game
19
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
8
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
23
16
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Jaguars logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
15
28
Yards / Game
12
24
Passing Yards / Game
22
25
Rushing Yards / Game
23
24

EPA

EPA / Play
15
19
EPA / Pass
19
15
EPA / Rush
28
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
18
Interceptions / Game
19
14
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
7
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
11
4th Down Efficiency
27
30
RZ Efficiency
21
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-35
L
L
O
12/17
-3
L
W
O
12/26
-17
L
L
U
01/01
-28
L
L
O
01/08
-1
L
L
O
09/10
-10
L
L
O
09/17
11
W
W
O
09/24
3
W
W
U
10/01
-6
L
L
O
10/08
7
W
W
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
16
W
W
U
01/01
28
W
W
U
01/07
4
W
L
U
01/14
1
W
W
O
01/21
-7
L
W
U
09/10
10
W
W
O
09/17
-8
L
L
U
09/24
-20
L
L
O
10/01
16
W
W
U
10/08
5
W
W
U