INDColts
3-2
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
037
JAXJaguars
3-2
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
3
0
14
20
Jaguars
0
21
10
6
37
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
354
233
Total Plays
75
62
Yards / Play
4.7
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.09
Passing Yards
310
148
Comp/Att
33/55(60%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.12
Rushing Yards
44
85
Rush Attempts
17
29
Yards / Rush
2.6
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
14
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
35%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-19.17
-3.77
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-19
-33
Sack EPA
-8.41
-5.57
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
46
25
Penalty EPA
-6.06
-3.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model68.3%
Spread Pick
Jaguars-4.0
Expected Value
+0.7%
Cover Probability
51.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+164
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,406
Home Field
+38.8
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
-19.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.6
Home QB Adjustment
+6.3
Away QB Adjustment
+14.9
Market Regression
+2.4
Final Difference
133.3
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+14.9
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
16
Yards / Game
14
19
Passing Yards / Game
14
20
Rushing Yards / Game
10
9
EPA
EPA / Play
17
14
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
21
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
18
Interceptions / Game
6
12
Fumbles / Game
16
13
Turnover EPA / Game
19
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
8
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
23
16
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
28
Yards / Game
12
24
Passing Yards / Game
22
25
Rushing Yards / Game
23
24
EPA
EPA / Play
15
19
EPA / Pass
19
15
EPA / Rush
28
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
18
Interceptions / Game
19
14
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
7
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
11
4th Down Efficiency
27
30
RZ Efficiency
21
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jaguars
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U