INDColts
3-8
10
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
7 mph
30
JAXJaguars
7-4
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
3
7
0
10
Jaguars
7
9
11
3
30
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
290
428
Total Plays
66
66
Yards / Play
4.4
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.24
Passing Yards
149
332
Comp/Att
21/36(58%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
8.7
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.57
Rushing Yards
141
96
Rush Attempts
26
27
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
8
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.12
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-25
-8
Sack EPA
-4.81
-1.53
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
31
55
Penalty EPA
-4.28
-7.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+203
Home nfelo
1,508
Away nfelo
1,337
Home Field
+50.0
Base HFA
+55.6
Divisional Adj
-25.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.9
Home QB Adjustment
-1.2
Away QB Adjustment
+17.7
Market Regression
+27.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
3
Yards / Game
31
3
Passing Yards / Game
20
6
Rushing Yards / Game
21
17
EPA
EPA / Play
24
1
EPA / Pass
30
1
EPA / Rush
18
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
29
Interceptions / Game
5
2
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
22
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
4
4th Down Efficiency
16
24
RZ Efficiency
31
3
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
30
Yards / Game
9
28
Passing Yards / Game
28
30
Rushing Yards / Game
1
25
EPA
EPA / Play
9
32
EPA / Pass
10
32
EPA / Rush
6
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
1
Interceptions / Game
9
15
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
24
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
31
4th Down Efficiency
2
18
RZ Efficiency
1
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U