INDColts
6-5
0
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
78°F
13 mph
6
JAXJaguars
3-8
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
78°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
0
0
0
0
Jaguars
0
3
0
3
6
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
265
211
Total Plays
71
54
Yards / Play
3.7
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.33
-0.29
Passing Yards
224
132
Comp/Att
33/52(63%)
18/24(75%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.06
Rushing Yards
41
79
Rush Attempts
16
27
Yards / Rush
2.6
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.66
-0.52
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
11
Passing 1st downs
15
7
Rushing 1st downs
1
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
28%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
18
15
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.52
-5.33
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-24
-18
Sack EPA
-6.44
-5.74
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
65
74
Penalty EPA
-7.20
-9.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-79
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,484
Home Field
+51.4
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-126.8
Home QB Adjustment
-84.4
Away QB Adjustment
+42.4
Market Regression
-28.2
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+42.4
C. Kessler
Proj. Value
-4.5
Team Elo Adj
-84.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
4
Yards / Game
7
5
Passing Yards / Game
24
5
Rushing Yards / Game
16
20
EPA
EPA / Play
10
6
EPA / Pass
10
7
EPA / Rush
18
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
2
Interceptions / Game
22
23
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
9
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
14
4th Down Efficiency
19
1
RZ Efficiency
7
4
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
8
Yards / Game
27
11
Passing Yards / Game
31
4
Rushing Yards / Game
20
9
EPA
EPA / Play
30
8
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
23
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
31
Interceptions / Game
17
13
Fumbles / Game
32
12
Turnover EPA / Game
8
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
7
RZ Efficiency
31
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
2-6-2
ATS
5-5
O/U