INDColts
2-2
9
TBD
MetLife Stadium
65°F
14 mph
35
NYJJets
2-3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
65°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
3
0
3
9
Jets
0
21
7
7
35
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
298
351
Total Plays
65
64
Yards / Play
4.6
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.32
Passing Yards
257
99
Comp/Att
22/44(50%)
12/19(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.34
Rushing Yards
41
252
Rush Attempts
17
44
Yards / Rush
2.4
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
--
14
Penalty 1st downs
6
--
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-13.49
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-23
-6
Sack EPA
-5.38
-2.00
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
27
110
Penalty EPA
-4.45
-5.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+103
Home nfelo
1,454
Away nfelo
1,382
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.8
Home QB Adjustment
-16.8
Away QB Adjustment
+14.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-16.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
20
Yards / Game
10
6
Passing Yards / Game
5
1
Rushing Yards / Game
18
26
EPA
EPA / Play
16
11
EPA / Pass
17
11
EPA / Rush
11
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
6
Interceptions / Game
26
23
Fumbles / Game
11
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
12
4th Down Efficiency
2
31
RZ Efficiency
21
26
Jets Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
21
Yards / Game
30
27
Passing Yards / Game
27
10
Rushing Yards / Game
12
29
EPA
EPA / Play
30
26
EPA / Pass
30
27
EPA / Rush
15
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
9
Interceptions / Game
28
22
Fumbles / Game
28
30
Turnover EPA / Game
3
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
15
4th Down Efficiency
17
9
RZ Efficiency
25
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U