INDColts
3-5
31
TBD
Lambeau Field
68°F
7 mph
26
GBPackers
4-3
TBD
Lambeau Field
68°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
14
10
0
7
31
Packers
10
0
3
13
26
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
355
405
Total Plays
66
66
Yards / Play
5.4
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.08
Passing Yards
270
289
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
26/44(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.13
Rushing Yards
85
116
Rush Attempts
28
19
Yards / Rush
3.0
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
25
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.79
-3.01
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-11
-8
Sack EPA
-3.57
-4.02
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
35
25
Penalty EPA
-3.44
-2.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model77.3%
Spread Pick
Packers-7.5
Expected Value
+2.3%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+242
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,432
Home Field
+87.3
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.3
Home QB Adjustment
+17.8
Away QB Adjustment
+12.6
Market Regression
+4.0
Final Difference
212.5
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
25
Yards / Game
9
25
Passing Yards / Game
7
29
Rushing Yards / Game
24
10
EPA
EPA / Play
8
31
EPA / Pass
11
28
EPA / Rush
18
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
11
Interceptions / Game
18
8
Fumbles / Game
7
22
Turnover EPA / Game
8
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
26
4th Down Efficiency
22
24
RZ Efficiency
3
27
Packers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
21
Yards / Game
7
30
Passing Yards / Game
6
22
Rushing Yards / Game
22
25
EPA
EPA / Play
3
25
EPA / Pass
3
25
EPA / Rush
8
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
5
Interceptions / Game
7
29
Fumbles / Game
12
17
Turnover EPA / Game
28
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
23
4th Down Efficiency
19
8
RZ Efficiency
7
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Packers
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U