nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ patriots week 9, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

IND logo
INDColts
3-4
3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
78°F
13 mph
26
NEPatriots
4-4
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
78°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
0
3
0
3
Patriots
0
13
3
4
20

Spread

NE logo
-5

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
121
203
Total Plays
60
62
Yards / Play
2.0
3.3
EPA / Play
-0.74
-0.29
Passing Yards
43
133
Comp/Att
15/29(52%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
1.5
4.4
EPA / Pass
-1.01
-0.43
Rushing Yards
78
70
Rush Attempts
22
28
Yards / Rush
3.5
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.39
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
8
11
Passing 1st downs
3
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
0%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
--
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.32
-4.32
Sacks
9
4
Sack Yards
-60
-14
Sack EPA
-14.53
-6.54
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
15
35
Penalty EPA
-1.79
-4.24

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model68.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+170
Home nfelo
1,523
Away nfelo
1,477
Home Field
+39.7
Base HFA
+39.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+83.3
Home QB Adjustment
-14.5
Away QB Adjustment
-97.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
133.2
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

S. Ehlinger headshot

S. Ehlinger

Proj. Value
-5.5
Team Elo Adj
-97.8
Value
Ptile
10/30
-1.8
39
M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-14.5
Value
Ptile
12/18
-0.1
53
12/26
-6.5
12
01/02
4.7
83
01/09
-0.2
52
01/15
0.3
55
09/11
-1.3
44
09/18
0.2
54
09/25
-2.4
33
10/24
-6.4
12
10/30
-6.1
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Patriots Defense
Colts logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
30
11
Yards / Game
27
9
Passing Yards / Game
18
27
Rushing Yards / Game
23
7

EPA

EPA / Play
32
2
EPA / Pass
30
3
EPA / Rush
30
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
14
Interceptions / Game
32
3
Fumbles / Game
32
20
Turnover EPA / Game
1
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
20
4th Down Efficiency
23
2
RZ Efficiency
29
21
Patriots Offense vs Colts Defense
Patriots logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
16
28
Yards / Game
26
15
Passing Yards / Game
19
18
Rushing Yards / Game
24
20

EPA

EPA / Play
26
10
EPA / Pass
22
16
EPA / Rush
24
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
2
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
29
10
Turnover EPA / Game
22
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
9
4th Down Efficiency
28
17
RZ Efficiency
32
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

3-6-1
SU
3-7
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
-3
L
L
U
01/09
-15
L
L
U
09/11
0
T
L
U
09/18
-24
L
L
U
09/25
3
W
W
U
10/02
-7
L
L
U
10/06
3
W
W
U
10/16
7
W
W
O
10/23
-9
L
L
U
10/30
-1
L
L
U
NE logo

Patriots

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/09
-9
L
L
O
01/15
-30
L
L
O
09/11
-13
L
L
U
09/18
3
W
P
U
09/25
-11
L
L
O
10/02
-3
L
W
O
10/09
29
W
W
U
10/16
23
W
W
O
10/24
-19
L
L
O
10/30
5
W
W
U