INDColts
3-4
3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
78°F
13 mph
26
NEPatriots
4-4
TBD
Gillette Stadium
78°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
0
3
0
3
Patriots
0
13
3
4
20
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
121
203
Total Plays
60
62
Yards / Play
2.0
3.3
EPA / Play
-0.74
-0.29
Passing Yards
43
133
Comp/Att
15/29(52%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
1.5
4.4
EPA / Pass
-1.01
-0.43
Rushing Yards
78
70
Rush Attempts
22
28
Yards / Rush
3.5
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.39
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
8
11
Passing 1st downs
3
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
0%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
--
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.32
-4.32
Sacks
9
4
Sack Yards
-60
-14
Sack EPA
-14.53
-6.54
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
15
35
Penalty EPA
-1.79
-4.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model68.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+168
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+39.1
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+83.3
Home QB Adjustment
-14.5
Away QB Adjustment
-97.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
132.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
S. Ehlinger
Proj. Value
-5.5
Team Elo Adj
-97.8
Value
Ptile
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-14.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
11
Yards / Game
27
9
Passing Yards / Game
18
27
Rushing Yards / Game
23
7
EPA
EPA / Play
32
2
EPA / Pass
30
3
EPA / Rush
30
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
14
Interceptions / Game
32
3
Fumbles / Game
32
20
Turnover EPA / Game
1
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
20
4th Down Efficiency
23
2
RZ Efficiency
29
21
Patriots Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
28
Yards / Game
26
15
Passing Yards / Game
19
18
Rushing Yards / Game
24
20
EPA
EPA / Play
26
10
EPA / Pass
22
16
EPA / Rush
24
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
2
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
29
10
Turnover EPA / Game
22
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
9
4th Down Efficiency
28
17
RZ Efficiency
32
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
3-6-1
SU
3-7
ATS
1-9
O/U
Patriots
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U