INDColts
6-3
24
TBD
Gillette Stadium
42°F
14 mph
59
NEPatriots
6-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
42°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
14
3
0
7
24
Patriots
7
5
14
15
41
Spread
-10
Total
OVER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
448
446
Total Plays
75
60
Yards / Play
6.0
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.40
Passing Yards
329
--
Comp/Att
27/50(54%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.73
Rushing Yards
119
115
Rush Attempts
24
25
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
25
Passing 1st downs
16
20
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
57%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
8
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-27.31
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-4.09
--
Penalties
1
4
Penalty Yards
--
70
Penalty EPA
--
-6.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model82.3%
Spread Pick
Patriots-10.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+301
Home nfelo
1,663
Away nfelo
1,417
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.1
Home QB Adjustment
+11.9
Away QB Adjustment
+19.0
Market Regression
+1.7
Final Difference
266.6
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+19.0
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
10
Yards / Game
10
26
Passing Yards / Game
5
31
Rushing Yards / Game
18
8
EPA
EPA / Play
16
17
EPA / Pass
17
19
EPA / Rush
11
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
26
6
Fumbles / Game
11
2
Turnover EPA / Game
7
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
20
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
21
23
Patriots Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
21
Yards / Game
1
27
Passing Yards / Game
9
10
Rushing Yards / Game
7
29
EPA
EPA / Play
1
26
EPA / Pass
1
27
EPA / Rush
3
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
9
Interceptions / Game
5
22
Fumbles / Game
8
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
15
4th Down Efficiency
5
9
RZ Efficiency
1
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U