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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ patriots week 13, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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IND logo
INDColts
5-7
25
TBD
Gillette Stadium
36°F
9 mph
24
NEPatriots
3-9
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
36°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
7
3
8
25
Patriots
6
10
0
8
24

Spread

NE logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
255
424
Total Plays
59
66
Yards / Play
4.3
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.11
Passing Yards
--
224
Comp/Att
12/24(50%)
24/31(77%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.25
Rushing Yards
146
200
Rush Attempts
35
31
Yards / Rush
4.2
6.5
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
5
14
Rushing 1st downs
13
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
45%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.35
-5.83
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-5.01
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
15
88
Penalty EPA
-2.37
-8.97

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-44
Home nfelo
1,358
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+40.4
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.1
Home QB Adjustment
+9.9
Away QB Adjustment
-5.3
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Richardson headshot

A. Richardson

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-5.3
Value
Ptile
10/01
3.8
75
10/08
-4.1
24
09/08
2.3
65
09/15
-5.5
14
09/22
-7.1
8
09/29
-2.3
32
10/20
-2.4
32
10/27
-9.1
3
11/17
7.8
92
11/24
-1.3
39
D. Maye headshot

D. Maye

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+9.9
Value
Ptile
10/13
-1.0
41
10/20
3.2
71
10/27
-0.3
47
11/03
1.1
57
11/10
-1.0
41
11/17
3.6
73
11/24
-3.8
23

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Patriots Defense
Colts logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
16
21
Yards / Game
13
21
Passing Yards / Game
24
1
Rushing Yards / Game
8
22

EPA

EPA / Play
23
26
EPA / Pass
23
30
EPA / Rush
17
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
6
Interceptions / Game
29
27
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
4
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
27
4th Down Efficiency
11
11
RZ Efficiency
23
26
Patriots Offense vs Colts Defense
Patriots logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
30
24
Yards / Game
31
29
Passing Yards / Game
22
12
Rushing Yards / Game
14
23

EPA

EPA / Play
28
15
EPA / Pass
27
27
EPA / Rush
25
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
25
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
29
11
Turnover EPA / Game
9
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
29
4th Down Efficiency
14
11
RZ Efficiency
30
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
5
W
W
U
09/29
3
W
W
O
10/06
-3
L
W
O
10/13
3
W
W
U
10/20
6
W
W
U
10/27
-3
L
W
U
11/03
-8
L
L
U
11/10
-10
L
L
O
11/17
1
W
W
O
11/24
-18
L
L
U
NE logo

Patriots

2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
-21
L
L
U
09/29
-17
L
L
O
10/06
-5
L
L
U
10/13
-20
L
L
O
10/20
-16
L
L
O
10/27
3
W
W
O
11/03
-3
L
P
U
11/10
16
W
W
U
11/17
-6
L
L
O
11/24
-19
L
L
O