INDColts
5-7
25
TBD
Gillette Stadium
36°F
9 mph
24
NEPatriots
3-9
TBD
Gillette Stadium
36°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
7
3
8
25
Patriots
6
10
0
8
24
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
255
424
Total Plays
59
66
Yards / Play
4.3
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.11
Passing Yards
--
224
Comp/Att
12/24(50%)
24/31(77%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.25
Rushing Yards
146
200
Rush Attempts
35
31
Yards / Rush
4.2
6.5
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
5
14
Rushing 1st downs
13
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
45%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.35
-5.83
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-5.01
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
15
88
Penalty EPA
-2.37
-8.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-44
Home nfelo
1,358
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+40.6
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.1
Home QB Adjustment
+9.8
Away QB Adjustment
-5.3
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Richardson
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.3
D. Maye
Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
21
Yards / Game
13
21
Passing Yards / Game
24
1
Rushing Yards / Game
8
22
EPA
EPA / Play
23
26
EPA / Pass
23
30
EPA / Rush
17
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
6
Interceptions / Game
29
27
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
4
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
27
4th Down Efficiency
11
11
RZ Efficiency
23
26
Patriots Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
24
Yards / Game
31
29
Passing Yards / Game
22
12
Rushing Yards / Game
14
23
EPA
EPA / Play
28
15
EPA / Pass
27
27
EPA / Rush
25
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
25
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
29
11
Turnover EPA / Game
9
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
29
4th Down Efficiency
14
11
RZ Efficiency
30
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U