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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ raiders week 10, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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IND logo
INDColts
3-5
25
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
20
OAKRaiders
2-6
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
6
6
6
25
Raiders
0
7
7
6
20

Spread

IND logo
+4

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
415
309
Total Plays
61
65
Yards / Play
6.8
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.06
Passing Yards
208
232
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.05
Rushing Yards
207
77
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
6.9
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
55%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.80
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-14
-16
Sack EPA
-2.86
-3.22
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
25
74
Penalty EPA
-3.86
-4.83

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+89
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,463
Home Field
+60.2
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-22.9
Home QB Adjustment
-9.7
Away QB Adjustment
+13.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.2
Value
Ptile
12/26
-2.7
34
01/02
-4.7
21
01/09
-3.1
31
09/11
1.2
60
09/18
-14.2
0
09/25
-1.8
39
10/02
2.4
71
10/06
-8.6
4
10/16
11.4
98
10/23
-2.8
29
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
Value
Ptile
01/09
-3.6
27
01/15
-3.2
29
09/11
-6.8
10
09/18
2.6
73
09/25
2.3
71
10/02
-0.5
48
10/10
-0.2
51
10/23
2.3
71
10/30
-9.0
4
11/06
0.2
54

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Raiders Defense
Colts logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
30
26
Yards / Game
27
27
Passing Yards / Game
18
5
Rushing Yards / Game
23
19

EPA

EPA / Play
32
25
EPA / Pass
30
30
EPA / Rush
30
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
25
Interceptions / Game
32
31
Fumbles / Game
32
25
Turnover EPA / Game
1
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
25
4th Down Efficiency
23
20
RZ Efficiency
29
31
Raiders Offense vs Colts Defense
Raiders logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
13
28
Yards / Game
12
15
Passing Yards / Game
15
18
Rushing Yards / Game
17
20

EPA

EPA / Play
13
10
EPA / Pass
14
16
EPA / Rush
13
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
2
Interceptions / Game
28
24
Fumbles / Game
1
10
Turnover EPA / Game
8
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
9
4th Down Efficiency
9
17
RZ Efficiency
26
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

3-6-1
SU
3-7
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/09
-15
L
L
U
09/11
0
T
L
U
09/18
-24
L
L
U
09/25
3
W
W
U
10/02
-7
L
L
U
10/06
3
W
W
U
10/16
7
W
W
O
10/23
-9
L
L
U
10/30
-1
L
L
U
11/06
-23
L
L
U
OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/09
3
W
W
O
01/15
-7
L
L
U
09/11
-5
L
L
U
09/18
-6
L
L
O
09/25
-2
L
L
O
10/02
9
W
W
O
10/10
-1
L
W
O
10/23
18
W
W
O
10/30
-24
L
L
U
11/06
-7
L
L
U