INDColts
3-5
25
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
020
OAKRaiders
2-6
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
6
6
6
25
Raiders
0
7
7
6
20
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
415
309
Total Plays
61
65
Yards / Play
6.8
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.06
Passing Yards
208
232
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.05
Rushing Yards
207
77
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
6.9
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
55%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.80
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-14
-16
Sack EPA
-2.86
-3.22
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
25
74
Penalty EPA
-3.86
-4.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+86
Home nfelo
1,514
Away nfelo
1,465
Home Field
+60.2
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-22.9
Home QB Adjustment
-9.7
Away QB Adjustment
+13.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.2
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
26
Yards / Game
27
27
Passing Yards / Game
18
5
Rushing Yards / Game
23
19
EPA
EPA / Play
32
25
EPA / Pass
30
30
EPA / Rush
30
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
25
Interceptions / Game
32
31
Fumbles / Game
32
25
Turnover EPA / Game
1
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
25
4th Down Efficiency
23
20
RZ Efficiency
29
31
Raiders Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
28
Yards / Game
12
15
Passing Yards / Game
15
18
Rushing Yards / Game
17
20
EPA
EPA / Play
13
10
EPA / Pass
14
16
EPA / Rush
13
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
2
Interceptions / Game
28
24
Fumbles / Game
1
10
Turnover EPA / Game
8
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
9
4th Down Efficiency
9
17
RZ Efficiency
26
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
3-6-1
SU
3-7
ATS
1-9
O/U
Raiders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U