INDColts
1-3
25
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
69°F
6 mph
31
BALRavens
3-1
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
69°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Colts
7
3
12
3
0
25
Ravens
0
3
6
16
6
31
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
513
527
Total Plays
64
73
Yards / Play
8.0
7.2
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.26
Passing Yards
390
441
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
37/45(82%)
Yards / Pass
10.8
9.8
EPA / Pass
+0.46
+0.72
Rushing Yards
123
86
Rush Attempts
26
26
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
30
Passing 1st downs
16
22
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
50%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
8
Red Zone %
25%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.60
-6.90
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-12
-5
Sack EPA
-7.59
-2.35
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
45
74
Penalty EPA
+2.89
-6.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+182
Home nfelo
1,629
Away nfelo
1,514
Home Field
+56.6
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.9
Home QB Adjustment
-0.0
Away QB Adjustment
-11.0
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-11.0
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
18
Yards / Game
16
24
Passing Yards / Game
18
29
Rushing Yards / Game
2
2
EPA
EPA / Play
8
23
EPA / Pass
18
30
EPA / Rush
2
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
3
Interceptions / Game
4
27
Fumbles / Game
20
27
Turnover EPA / Game
28
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
3
4th Down Efficiency
6
23
RZ Efficiency
19
12
Ravens Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
11
Yards / Game
6
17
Passing Yards / Game
6
21
Rushing Yards / Game
3
12
EPA
EPA / Play
16
12
EPA / Pass
20
21
EPA / Rush
8
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
22
Interceptions / Game
28
3
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
5
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
18
4th Down Efficiency
3
18
RZ Efficiency
13
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U