INDColts
6-7
7
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
034
NOSaints
10-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
0
0
7
7
Saints
3
17
14
0
34
Spread
-8.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
205
424
Total Plays
52
63
Yards / Play
3.9
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.29
+0.24
Passing Yards
159
--
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
29/30(97%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.72
Rushing Yards
46
117
Rush Attempts
17
33
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
27
Passing 1st downs
8
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
25%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-6
--
Sack EPA
-1.91
--
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
49
52
Penalty EPA
-8.44
-7.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+188
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+55.7
Base HFA
+47.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.4
Net QB Adjustment
+16.0
Home QB Adjustment
+19.1
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
+10.6
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
14
Yards / Game
25
10
Passing Yards / Game
25
20
Rushing Yards / Game
5
4
EPA
EPA / Play
18
8
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
2
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
29
Interceptions / Game
12
16
Fumbles / Game
22
9
Turnover EPA / Game
12
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
8
4th Down Efficiency
6
11
RZ Efficiency
3
24
Saints Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
18
Yards / Game
9
16
Passing Yards / Game
29
18
Rushing Yards / Game
16
5
EPA
EPA / Play
5
17
EPA / Pass
4
21
EPA / Rush
13
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
24
Interceptions / Game
4
6
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
32
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
27
4th Down Efficiency
24
10
RZ Efficiency
14
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U