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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ saints week 15, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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IND logo
INDColts
6-7
7
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
34
NOSaints
10-3
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
0
0
7
7
Saints
3
17
14
0
34

Spread

NO logo
-8.5

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
205
424
Total Plays
52
63
Yards / Play
3.9
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.29
+0.24
Passing Yards
159
--
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
29/30(97%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.72
Rushing Yards
46
117
Rush Attempts
17
33
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
16
27
Passing 1st downs
8
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
25%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-6
--
Sack EPA
-1.91
--
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
49
52
Penalty EPA
-8.44
-7.39

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+183
Home nfelo
1,612
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+56.0
Base HFA
+47.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.5
Net QB Adjustment
+16.0
Home QB Adjustment
+19.1
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
+10.6
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Value
Ptile
09/22
6.0
86
09/29
0.9
60
10/06
-2.2
37
10/20
7.0
90
10/27
-2.6
34
11/03
-4.9
20
11/17
-2.7
34
11/21
-2.5
35
12/01
-3.4
28
12/08
1.1
60
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
Value
Ptile
01/13
2.2
64
01/20
-0.1
45
09/09
6.0
87
09/15
-7.2
10
10/27
8.7
94
11/10
-5.2
19
11/17
3.9
78
11/24
5.9
86
11/28
-2.1
37
12/08
16.0
100

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Saints Defense
Colts logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
16
14
Yards / Game
25
10
Passing Yards / Game
25
20
Rushing Yards / Game
5
4

EPA

EPA / Play
18
8
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
2
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
29
Interceptions / Game
12
16
Fumbles / Game
22
9
Turnover EPA / Game
12
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
8
4th Down Efficiency
6
11
RZ Efficiency
3
23
Saints Offense vs Colts Defense
Saints logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
5
18
Yards / Game
9
16
Passing Yards / Game
29
18
Rushing Yards / Game
16
5

EPA

EPA / Play
5
17
EPA / Pass
4
21
EPA / Rush
14
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
24
Interceptions / Game
4
6
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
32
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
27
4th Down Efficiency
24
10
RZ Efficiency
13
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
-7
L
L
O
10/06
6
W
W
U
10/20
7
W
W
O
10/27
2
W
L
U
11/03
-2
L
L
O
11/10
-4
L
L
U
11/17
20
W
W
O
11/21
-3
L
W
U
12/01
-14
L
L
O
12/08
-3
L
P
O
NO logo

Saints

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
2
W
W
U
10/06
7
W
W
O
10/13
7
W
W
U
10/20
11
W
W
O
10/27
22
W
W
U
11/10
-17
L
L
U
11/17
17
W
W
O
11/24
3
W
L
O
11/28
8
W
W
U
12/08
-2
L
L
O