INDColts
1-2
18
TBD
Lumen Field
61°F
8 mph
46
SEASeahawks
1-2
TBD
Lumen Field
61°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
13
3
0
16
Seahawks
3
1
16
14
34
Spread
-12.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
237
479
Total Plays
58
63
Yards / Play
4.1
7.6
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.23
Passing Yards
139
285
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
10.6
EPA / Pass
-0.53
+0.42
Rushing Yards
98
194
Rush Attempts
25
33
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
43%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
6
10
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.98
-8.59
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-18
-12
Sack EPA
-10.83
-3.16
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
31
45
Penalty EPA
-4.54
-4.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-12.5
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model82.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+212
Home nfelo
1,564
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+88.0
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+30.8
Net QB Adjustment
-28.1
Home QB Adjustment
+3.5
Away QB Adjustment
+31.6
Market Regression
-19.5
Final Difference
265.4
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+31.6
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
9
Yards / Game
31
11
Passing Yards / Game
20
9
Rushing Yards / Game
21
20
EPA
EPA / Play
24
8
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
18
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
10
Interceptions / Game
5
14
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
22
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
16
4th Down Efficiency
16
15
RZ Efficiency
31
6
Seahawks Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
30
Yards / Game
15
28
Passing Yards / Game
9
30
Rushing Yards / Game
23
25
EPA
EPA / Play
19
32
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
24
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
1
Interceptions / Game
13
15
Fumbles / Game
7
28
Turnover EPA / Game
25
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
31
4th Down Efficiency
7
18
RZ Efficiency
12
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Seahawks
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U