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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ seahawks week 4, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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IND logo
INDColts
1-2
18
TBD
Lumen Field
61°F
8 mph
46
SEASeahawks
1-2
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
61°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
13
3
0
16
Seahawks
3
1
16
14
34

Spread

SEA logo
-12.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
237
479
Total Plays
58
63
Yards / Play
4.1
7.6
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.23
Passing Yards
139
285
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
10.6
EPA / Pass
-0.53
+0.42
Rushing Yards
98
194
Rush Attempts
25
33
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
43%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
6
10
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.98
-8.59
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-18
-12
Sack EPA
-10.83
-3.16
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
31
45
Penalty EPA
-4.54
-4.81

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-12.5
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market84.1%
Model82.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+212
Home nfelo
1,563
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+89.2
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+31.2
Net QB Adjustment
-28.1
Home QB Adjustment
+3.5
Away QB Adjustment
+31.6
Market Regression
-19.5
Final Difference
265.6
Model Spread
-11.5

Quarterbacks

J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+31.6
Value
Ptile
09/22
1.4
59
10/02
-1.7
36
09/17
-7.1
12
09/24
4.3
81
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
Value
Ptile
12/04
1.5
60
12/11
-11.2
1
12/15
1.2
58
12/24
4.7
82
01/01
0.9
56
01/07
-0.2
47
01/14
-1.9
35
09/10
-4.1
24
09/17
-1.7
40
09/24
9.5
97

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Colts logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
30
9
Yards / Game
31
11
Passing Yards / Game
20
9
Rushing Yards / Game
21
20

EPA

EPA / Play
24
8
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
18
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
10
Interceptions / Game
5
14
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
22
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
16
4th Down Efficiency
16
15
RZ Efficiency
31
6
Seahawks Offense vs Colts Defense
Seahawks logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
12
30
Yards / Game
15
28
Passing Yards / Game
9
30
Rushing Yards / Game
23
25

EPA

EPA / Play
19
32
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
24
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
1
Interceptions / Game
13
15
Fumbles / Game
7
28
Turnover EPA / Game
25
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
31
4th Down Efficiency
7
18
RZ Efficiency
12
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
7
W
W
U
11/24
-21
L
L
U
12/05
31
W
W
O
12/11
-5
L
L
U
12/18
28
W
W
U
12/24
-8
L
L
O
01/01
4
W
L
U
09/10
-37
L
L
O
09/17
-3
L
W
U
09/24
3
W
W
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
33
W
W
O
12/11
-28
L
L
O
12/15
21
W
W
U
12/24
-3
L
L
O
01/01
2
W
L
O
01/07
20
W
W
U
01/14
-16
L
L
O
09/10
-8
L
L
U
09/17
3
W
L
U
09/24
-6
L
L
O