INDColts
3-2
33
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
028
HOUTexans
3-2
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
24
3
6
0
33
Texans
0
14
7
1
22
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
456
332
Total Plays
83
52
Yards / Play
5.5
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.12
Passing Yards
363
196
Comp/Att
25/44(57%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.34
-0.21
Rushing Yards
93
136
Rush Attempts
36
24
Yards / Rush
2.6
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.50
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
18
Passing 1st downs
18
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
50%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
8
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-13.56
-6.89
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-7
-16
Sack EPA
-2.76
-8.24
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
51
66
Penalty EPA
-6.45
-7.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-25
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-33.2
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+33.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+33.6
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
6
Yards / Game
3
16
Passing Yards / Game
1
23
Rushing Yards / Game
22
9
EPA
EPA / Play
10
2
EPA / Pass
9
2
EPA / Rush
30
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
27
Interceptions / Game
24
3
Fumbles / Game
30
6
Turnover EPA / Game
5
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
2
4th Down Efficiency
22
7
RZ Efficiency
12
4
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
18
Yards / Game
16
9
Passing Yards / Game
32
3
Rushing Yards / Game
5
19
EPA
EPA / Play
19
11
EPA / Pass
17
5
EPA / Rush
14
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
28
Interceptions / Game
11
25
Fumbles / Game
19
3
Turnover EPA / Game
16
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
3
4th Down Efficiency
6
5
RZ Efficiency
15
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U