INDColts
2-3
23
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
026
HOUTexans
3-2
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Colts
3
10
0
10
0
23
Texans
0
3
6
14
3
26
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
392
414
Total Plays
67
68
Yards / Play
5.9
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.02
Passing Yards
231
256
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.11
Rushing Yards
161
158
Rush Attempts
32
28
Yards / Rush
5.0
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
26
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.03
-4.38
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-21
-13
Sack EPA
-7.51
-2.61
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
42
59
Penalty EPA
-5.45
-5.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+69
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+41.7
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-10.5
Home QB Adjustment
-4.3
Away QB Adjustment
+6.3
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
12
Yards / Game
9
1
Passing Yards / Game
7
7
Rushing Yards / Game
24
11
EPA
EPA / Play
8
3
EPA / Pass
11
4
EPA / Rush
18
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
18
13
Fumbles / Game
7
25
Turnover EPA / Game
8
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
7
4th Down Efficiency
22
3
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
21
Yards / Game
29
30
Passing Yards / Game
28
22
Rushing Yards / Game
7
25
EPA
EPA / Play
31
25
EPA / Pass
29
25
EPA / Rush
26
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
5
Interceptions / Game
25
29
Fumbles / Game
10
17
Turnover EPA / Game
11
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
23
4th Down Efficiency
29
8
RZ Efficiency
31
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U