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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ texans week 6, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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IND logo
INDColts
2-3
23
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
26
HOUTexans
3-2
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Colts
3
10
0
10
0
23
Texans
0
3
6
14
3
26

Spread

IND logo
HOU logo
3
P

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
392
414
Total Plays
67
68
Yards / Play
5.9
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.02
Passing Yards
231
256
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.11
Rushing Yards
161
158
Rush Attempts
32
28
Yards / Rush
5.0
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
19
26
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.03
-4.38
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-21
-13
Sack EPA
-7.51
-2.61
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
42
59
Penalty EPA
-5.45
-5.31

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,449
Home Field
+42.3
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-10.5
Home QB Adjustment
-4.3
Away QB Adjustment
+6.3
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Value
Ptile
09/27
-1.9
36
10/18
6.1
88
10/25
-1.7
38
11/02
-4.4
18
11/08
5.3
84
09/11
10.3
97
09/18
-5.8
12
09/25
0.6
54
10/02
-3.8
21
10/09
2.2
66
B. Osweiler headshot

B. Osweiler

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.3
Value
Ptile
12/06
-4.4
18
12/13
-1.0
44
12/20
2.1
66
12/28
2.6
69
01/03
-3.3
26
09/11
-0.5
45
09/18
-3.5
23
09/22
-4.6
16
10/02
1.0
56
10/09
-8.0
5

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Colts logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
7
12
Yards / Game
9
1
Passing Yards / Game
7
7
Rushing Yards / Game
24
11

EPA

EPA / Play
8
3
EPA / Pass
11
4
EPA / Rush
18
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
18
13
Fumbles / Game
7
25
Turnover EPA / Game
8
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
7
4th Down Efficiency
22
3
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Texans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
28
21
Yards / Game
29
30
Passing Yards / Game
28
22
Rushing Yards / Game
7
25

EPA

EPA / Play
31
25
EPA / Pass
29
25
EPA / Rush
26
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
5
Interceptions / Game
25
29
Fumbles / Game
10
17
Turnover EPA / Game
11
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
23
4th Down Efficiency
29
8
RZ Efficiency
31
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
-35
L
L
O
12/13
-35
L
L
O
12/20
-6
L
L
U
12/27
6
W
W
U
01/03
6
W
W
O
09/11
-4
L
L
O
09/18
-14
L
L
O
09/25
4
W
W
U
10/02
-3
L
L
O
10/09
6
W
W
O
HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
-21
L
L
U
12/20
6
W
W
U
12/27
28
W
W
O
01/03
24
W
W
U
01/09
-30
L
L
U
09/11
9
W
W
U
09/18
7
W
W
U
09/22
-27
L
L
U
10/02
7
W
W
O
10/09
-18
L
L
O