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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ texans week 9, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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IND logo
INDColts
2-6
20
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
14
HOUTexans
3-4
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
3
7
3
20
Texans
0
1
0
7
8

Spread

IND logo
+6

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
371
288
Total Plays
61
67
Yards / Play
6.1
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.16
Passing Yards
279
194
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
19/44(43%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.21
Rushing Yards
92
94
Rush Attempts
28
21
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
29%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.25
-2.31
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-29
-25
Sack EPA
-10.48
-3.56
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
68
74
Penalty EPA
-10.37
-7.36

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model61.6%
Spread Pick
IND logo
Colts+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.7%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,327
Home Field
+21.1
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
-25.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-106.5
Home QB Adjustment
-83.8
Away QB Adjustment
+22.6
Market Regression
-218.1
Final Difference
81.9
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+22.6
Value
Ptile
09/22
1.4
59
10/02
-1.7
36
09/17
-7.1
12
09/24
4.3
81
10/01
-3.6
26
10/08
-1.2
43
10/16
-0.6
47
10/22
-7.8
8
10/29
-1.0
45
T. Savage headshot

T. Savage

Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-83.8
Value
Ptile
12/24
-4.5
16
01/01
-7.3
7
09/10
-10.9
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Colts logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
30
32
Yards / Game
31
20
Passing Yards / Game
20
22
Rushing Yards / Game
21
12

EPA

EPA / Play
24
30
EPA / Pass
30
25
EPA / Rush
18
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
5
18
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
22
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
5
4th Down Efficiency
16
27
RZ Efficiency
31
27
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Texans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
17
30
Yards / Game
20
28
Passing Yards / Game
12
30
Rushing Yards / Game
13
25

EPA

EPA / Play
21
32
EPA / Pass
25
32
EPA / Rush
12
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
1
Interceptions / Game
27
15
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
4
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
18
RZ Efficiency
20
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-8
L
L
O
01/01
4
W
L
U
09/10
-37
L
L
O
09/17
-3
L
W
U
09/24
3
W
W
O
10/01
-28
L
L
O
10/08
3
W
W
O
10/16
-14
L
L
O
10/22
-27
L
L
U
10/29
-1
L
W
O
HOU logo

Texans

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-7
L
L
U
01/07
13
W
W
O
01/14
-18
L
L
O
09/10
-22
L
L
U
09/14
4
W
W
U
09/24
-3
L
W
O
10/01
43
W
W
O
10/08
-8
L
L
O
10/15
16
W
W
O
10/29
-3
L
W
O