INDColts
2-6
20
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
014
HOUTexans
3-4
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
3
7
3
20
Texans
0
1
0
7
8
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
371
288
Total Plays
61
67
Yards / Play
6.1
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.16
Passing Yards
279
194
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
19/44(43%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.21
Rushing Yards
92
94
Rush Attempts
28
21
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
29%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.25
-2.31
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-29
-25
Sack EPA
-10.48
-3.56
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
68
74
Penalty EPA
-10.37
-7.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model61.4%
Spread Pick
Colts+6.0
Expected Value
+7.7%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+30
Home nfelo
1,445
Away nfelo
1,329
Home Field
+20.8
Base HFA
+56.3
Divisional Adj
-25.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.1
Net QB Adjustment
-106.5
Home QB Adjustment
-83.8
Away QB Adjustment
+22.6
Market Regression
-219.6
Final Difference
80.4
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+22.6
T. Savage
Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-83.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
32
Yards / Game
31
20
Passing Yards / Game
20
22
Rushing Yards / Game
21
12
EPA
EPA / Play
24
30
EPA / Pass
30
25
EPA / Rush
18
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
5
18
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
22
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
5
4th Down Efficiency
16
27
RZ Efficiency
31
27
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
30
Yards / Game
20
28
Passing Yards / Game
12
30
Rushing Yards / Game
13
25
EPA
EPA / Play
21
32
EPA / Pass
25
32
EPA / Rush
12
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
1
Interceptions / Game
27
15
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
4
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
18
RZ Efficiency
20
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Texans
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U