INDColts
7-4
26
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
020
HOUTexans
4-7
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
14
10
0
0
24
Texans
10
10
0
0
20
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
371
398
Total Plays
67
62
Yards / Play
5.5
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.06
Passing Yards
262
308
Comp/Att
27/35(77%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.03
Rushing Yards
109
90
Rush Attempts
29
19
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
27%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.81
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-23
-33
Sack EPA
-5.77
-6.91
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
50
30
Penalty EPA
-5.11
-2.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-104
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,592
Home Field
+4.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+16.2
Home QB Adjustment
+28.0
Away QB Adjustment
+11.9
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+28.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
27
Yards / Game
7
30
Passing Yards / Game
22
20
Rushing Yards / Game
9
32
EPA
EPA / Play
9
31
EPA / Pass
7
31
EPA / Rush
15
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
2
Interceptions / Game
10
32
Fumbles / Game
1
18
Turnover EPA / Game
28
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
20
24
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
11
Yards / Game
11
9
Passing Yards / Game
3
25
Rushing Yards / Game
31
2
EPA
EPA / Play
10
8
EPA / Pass
6
9
EPA / Rush
23
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
31
Interceptions / Game
2
11
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
27
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
18
4th Down Efficiency
18
6
RZ Efficiency
25
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U