INDColts
0-2
16
TBD
Nissan Stadium
72°F
4 mph
25
TENTitans
1-1
TBD
Nissan Stadium
72°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
10
3
3
16
Titans
7
7
0
11
25
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
265
370
Total Plays
57
66
Yards / Play
4.6
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.11
Passing Yards
178
188
Comp/Att
19/37(51%)
18/27(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.10
Rushing Yards
87
182
Rush Attempts
18
38
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.33
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
24
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
10
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
33%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-14.34
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-16
-9
Sack EPA
-3.02
-2.20
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
66
--
Penalty EPA
-8.69
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model65.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+56
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+31.1
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
-19.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
-7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+10.3
Home QB Adjustment
-1.1
Away QB Adjustment
-11.4
Market Regression
+9.2
Final Difference
109.9
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-11.4
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
6
Yards / Game
16
11
Passing Yards / Game
18
30
Rushing Yards / Game
2
1
EPA
EPA / Play
8
8
EPA / Pass
18
10
EPA / Rush
2
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
8
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
28
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
21
RZ Efficiency
19
4
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
11
Yards / Game
17
17
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
5
12
EPA
EPA / Play
17
12
EPA / Pass
16
21
EPA / Rush
10
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
25
3
Fumbles / Game
27
1
Turnover EPA / Game
10
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
18
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
9
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U