INDColts
2-3
22
TBD
Nissan Stadium
57°F
7 mph
36
TENTitans
2-3
TBD
Nissan Stadium
57°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
10
0
3
16
Titans
6
3
6
21
36
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
297
473
Total Plays
57
67
Yards / Play
5.2
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.00
+0.19
Passing Yards
212
305
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.12
Rushing Yards
85
168
Rush Attempts
19
34
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
22%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.76
-8.52
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
--
-1
Sack EPA
-3.64
-0.80
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
51
45
Penalty EPA
-11.31
-4.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+194
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,353
Home Field
+61.7
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-9.6
Home QB Adjustment
+19.4
Away QB Adjustment
+28.9
Market Regression
-26.4
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+28.9
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+19.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
19
Yards / Game
31
15
Passing Yards / Game
20
29
Rushing Yards / Game
21
4
EPA
EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
30
23
EPA / Rush
18
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
13
Interceptions / Game
5
23
Fumbles / Game
13
17
Turnover EPA / Game
22
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
18
4th Down Efficiency
16
26
RZ Efficiency
31
17
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
30
Yards / Game
21
28
Passing Yards / Game
23
30
Rushing Yards / Game
9
25
EPA
EPA / Play
18
32
EPA / Pass
24
32
EPA / Rush
10
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
1
Interceptions / Game
26
15
Fumbles / Game
11
28
Turnover EPA / Game
7
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
31
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
16
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U