INDColts
2-4
34
TBD
Nissan Stadium
68°F
5 mph
26
TENTitans
3-3
TBD
Nissan Stadium
68°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
10
3
8
28
Titans
6
7
0
13
26
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
422
331
Total Plays
65
69
Yards / Play
6.5
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.05
Passing Yards
341
207
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.41
-0.04
Rushing Yards
81
124
Rush Attempts
24
28
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
26
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
6
3rd Down %
40%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.98
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-12
-25
Sack EPA
-2.00
-10.35
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
131
38
Penalty EPA
-10.64
-4.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model60.5%
Spread Pick
Colts+4.0
Expected Value
+10.3%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+23
Home nfelo
1,426
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+41.0
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+8.1
Home QB Adjustment
+18.6
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
+31.4
Final Difference
74.0
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
16
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
7
24
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4
EPA
EPA / Play
8
20
EPA / Pass
11
23
EPA / Rush
18
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
25
Interceptions / Game
18
20
Fumbles / Game
7
30
Turnover EPA / Game
8
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
8
4th Down Efficiency
22
18
RZ Efficiency
3
7
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
21
Yards / Game
11
30
Passing Yards / Game
31
22
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25
EPA
EPA / Play
13
25
EPA / Pass
13
25
EPA / Rush
11
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
5
Interceptions / Game
12
29
Fumbles / Game
16
17
Turnover EPA / Game
17
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
23
4th Down Efficiency
30
8
RZ Efficiency
1
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Titans
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U