INDColts
3-2
10
TBD
Nissan Stadium
70°F
019
TENTitans
3-2
TBD
Nissan Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
0
7
3
10
Titans
3
4
0
6
13
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
254
Total Plays
64
57
Yards / Play
4.6
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.12
Passing Yards
227
116
Comp/Att
33/44(75%)
13/20(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.18
Rushing Yards
65
138
Rush Attempts
17
35
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
12
6
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
31%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-17.03
-5.25
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-16
-16
Sack EPA
-4.23
-2.26
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
28
--
Penalty EPA
-3.63
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+16
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+39.5
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
-17.7
Home Bye Adj
+11.3
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
-7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-15.4
Home QB Adjustment
-15.2
Away QB Adjustment
+0.2
Market Regression
+13.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.2
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-15.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
27
23
Passing Yards / Game
18
32
Rushing Yards / Game
23
1
EPA
EPA / Play
32
16
EPA / Pass
30
28
EPA / Rush
30
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
6
Interceptions / Game
32
13
Fumbles / Game
32
14
Turnover EPA / Game
1
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
3
4th Down Efficiency
23
32
RZ Efficiency
29
14
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
28
Yards / Game
30
15
Passing Yards / Game
24
18
Rushing Yards / Game
13
20
EPA
EPA / Play
25
10
EPA / Pass
23
16
EPA / Rush
26
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
2
Interceptions / Game
9
24
Fumbles / Game
11
10
Turnover EPA / Game
13
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
9
4th Down Efficiency
14
17
RZ Efficiency
6
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-4-1
SU
5-5
ATS
1-9
O/U
Titans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U