INDColts
10-5
27
TBD
Nissan Stadium
40°F
6 mph
10
TENTitans
2-13
TBD
Nissan Stadium
40°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
10
0
10
27
Titans
0
7
3
0
10
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
378
192
Total Plays
66
59
Yards / Play
5.7
3.3
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.34
Passing Yards
314
50
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
13/31(42%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
1.6
EPA / Pass
+0.47
-0.59
Rushing Yards
64
142
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
2.1
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
9
Passing 1st downs
15
3
Rushing 1st downs
1
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
31%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
16
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.48
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-1
-29
Sack EPA
-1.16
-8.36
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
20
20
Penalty EPA
-2.39
-3.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model79.1%
Spread Pick
Colts-7.5
Expected Value
+9.8%
Cover Probability
57.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-268
Home nfelo
1,278
Away nfelo
1,569
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-22.7
Home QB Adjustment
-20.1
Away QB Adjustment
+2.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-231.2
Model Spread
+9.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
C. Whitehurst
Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-20.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
29
Yards / Game
3
27
Passing Yards / Game
1
2
Rushing Yards / Game
22
31
EPA
EPA / Play
10
30
EPA / Pass
9
26
EPA / Rush
30
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
6
Interceptions / Game
24
22
Fumbles / Game
30
30
Turnover EPA / Game
5
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
19
4th Down Efficiency
22
14
RZ Efficiency
12
24
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
18
Yards / Game
29
9
Passing Yards / Game
16
3
Rushing Yards / Game
26
19
EPA
EPA / Play
30
11
EPA / Pass
30
5
EPA / Rush
17
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
28
Interceptions / Game
19
25
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
13
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
3
4th Down Efficiency
28
5
RZ Efficiency
26
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Titans
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U