INDColts
6-7
34
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
06
MINVikings
7-6
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
10
17
0
7
34
Vikings
0
0
3
3
6
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
411
282
Total Plays
68
56
Yards / Play
6.0
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.33
Passing Yards
--
248
Comp/Att
21/28(75%)
32/42(76%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.56
-0.29
Rushing Yards
161
34
Rush Attempts
40
9
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.83
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
20
Passing 1st downs
14
18
Rushing 1st downs
9
--
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
54%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-13.51
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-43
Sack EPA
--
-15.56
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
55
27
Penalty EPA
-3.84
-6.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+108
Home nfelo
1,526
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+47.1
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+10.8
Home QB Adjustment
+31.6
Away QB Adjustment
+20.8
Market Regression
+35.1
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+20.8
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+31.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
5
Yards / Game
9
3
Passing Yards / Game
7
4
Rushing Yards / Game
24
19
EPA
EPA / Play
8
4
EPA / Pass
11
2
EPA / Rush
18
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
10
Interceptions / Game
18
14
Fumbles / Game
7
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
15
4th Down Efficiency
22
2
RZ Efficiency
3
13
Vikings Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
21
Yards / Game
28
30
Passing Yards / Game
30
22
Rushing Yards / Game
32
25
EPA
EPA / Play
23
25
EPA / Pass
14
25
EPA / Rush
32
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
5
Interceptions / Game
2
29
Fumbles / Game
22
17
Turnover EPA / Game
29
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
23
4th Down Efficiency
22
8
RZ Efficiency
29
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U