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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ bears week 6, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
1-4
12
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
0
7
CHIBears
2-3
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
3
0
9
12
Bears
0
0
7
0
7

Spread

WAS logo
-1

Total

UNDER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
214
391
Total Plays
54
69
Yards / Play
4.0
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.12
Passing Yards
86
154
Comp/Att
12/23(52%)
14/27(52%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.39
-0.53
Rushing Yards
128
237
Rush Attempts
28
37
Yards / Rush
4.6
6.4
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
14
20
Passing 1st downs
5
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
18%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+6.12
-5.29
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-13
-36
Sack EPA
-5.89
-6.88
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
36
42
Penalty EPA
-4.56
-3.85

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+10
Home nfelo
1,384
Away nfelo
1,406
Home Field
+46.0
Base HFA
+39.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-13.9
Home QB Adjustment
-16.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.5
Market Regression
-16.0
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.5
Value
Ptile
12/05
-1.1
44
12/18
-5.3
18
12/25
0.9
60
01/02
-3.4
28
01/09
-9.8
4
09/11
3.3
77
09/18
1.4
62
09/25
-9.6
3
10/02
-4.6
20
10/09
4.3
82
J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-16.4
Value
Ptile
10/31
2.9
74
11/08
0.6
57
11/21
-5.6
16
12/12
0.6
57
12/20
2.0
68
09/11
-4.6
21
09/18
-6.6
11
09/25
-11.5
1
10/02
-6.6
10
10/09
1.9
68

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Bears Defense
Commanders logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
24
32
Yards / Game
20
29
Passing Yards / Game
16
6
Rushing Yards / Game
12
31

EPA

EPA / Play
22
32
EPA / Pass
25
32
EPA / Rush
21
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
4
Interceptions / Game
25
13
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
21
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
32
4th Down Efficiency
21
4
RZ Efficiency
23
27
Bears Offense vs Commanders Defense
Bears logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
23
8
Yards / Game
28
3
Passing Yards / Game
32
10
Rushing Yards / Game
1
11

EPA

EPA / Play
21
8
EPA / Pass
32
8
EPA / Rush
2
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
8
Interceptions / Game
22
29
Fumbles / Game
20
29
Turnover EPA / Game
25
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
1
4th Down Efficiency
31
14
RZ Efficiency
13
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/12
-7
L
L
U
12/21
-10
L
P
O
12/26
-42
L
L
O
01/02
-4
L
W
U
01/09
15
W
W
U
09/11
6
W
W
O
09/18
-9
L
L
O
09/25
-16
L
L
U
10/02
-15
L
L
U
10/09
-4
L
L
U
CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/12
-15
L
L
O
12/20
-8
L
L
U
12/26
1
W
W
O
01/02
26
W
W
U
01/09
-14
L
L
O
09/11
9
W
W
U
09/18
-17
L
L
U
09/25
3
W
P
O
10/02
-8
L
L
U
10/09
-7
L
W
O