WASCommanders
1-4
12
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
07
CHIBears
2-3
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
3
0
9
12
Bears
0
0
7
0
7
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
214
391
Total Plays
54
69
Yards / Play
4.0
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.12
Passing Yards
86
154
Comp/Att
12/23(52%)
14/27(52%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.39
-0.53
Rushing Yards
128
237
Rush Attempts
28
37
Yards / Rush
4.6
6.4
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
20
Passing 1st downs
5
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
18%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+6.12
-5.29
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-13
-36
Sack EPA
-5.89
-6.88
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
36
42
Penalty EPA
-4.56
-3.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+7
Home nfelo
1,382
Away nfelo
1,407
Home Field
+46.0
Base HFA
+39.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-13.9
Home QB Adjustment
-16.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.5
Market Regression
-16.0
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.5
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-16.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
32
Yards / Game
20
29
Passing Yards / Game
16
6
Rushing Yards / Game
12
31
EPA
EPA / Play
22
32
EPA / Pass
25
32
EPA / Rush
21
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
4
Interceptions / Game
25
13
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
21
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
32
4th Down Efficiency
21
4
RZ Efficiency
23
27
Bears Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
8
Yards / Game
28
3
Passing Yards / Game
32
10
Rushing Yards / Game
1
11
EPA
EPA / Play
21
8
EPA / Pass
32
8
EPA / Rush
2
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
8
Interceptions / Game
22
29
Fumbles / Game
20
29
Turnover EPA / Game
25
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
1
4th Down Efficiency
31
14
RZ Efficiency
13
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U