WASCommanders
1-1
20
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
73°F
18 mph
34
CLEBrowns
1-1
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
73°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
0
13
0
20
Browns
0
17
0
17
34
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
309
300
Total Plays
62
62
Yards / Play
5.0
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.09
Passing Yards
206
142
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
16/23(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.37
Rushing Yards
103
158
Rush Attempts
22
37
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
45%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-18.34
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-14
Sack EPA
-9.74
-3.49
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
40
50
Penalty EPA
-2.37
-7.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model70.2%
Spread Pick
Commanders+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+112
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,377
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.4
Home QB Adjustment
-2.9
Away QB Adjustment
-12.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
148.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
D. Haskins
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-12.4
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
29
21
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
26
9
EPA
EPA / Play
27
22
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
11
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
28
Interceptions / Game
27
10
Fumbles / Game
17
8
Turnover EPA / Game
10
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
25
4th Down Efficiency
21
32
RZ Efficiency
15
16
Browns Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
5
Yards / Game
16
5
Passing Yards / Game
32
6
Rushing Yards / Game
4
15
EPA
EPA / Play
8
7
EPA / Pass
8
4
EPA / Rush
10
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
5
Interceptions / Game
4
7
Fumbles / Game
18
4
Turnover EPA / Game
23
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
7
4th Down Efficiency
27
2
RZ Efficiency
4
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Browns
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U