WASCommanders
1-4
20
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
030
ARICardinals
3-1
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
13
0
7
20
Cardinals
7
7
3
7
24
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
407
317
Total Plays
57
68
Yards / Play
7.1
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.02
Passing Yards
335
243
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
28/44(64%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.14
Rushing Yards
72
74
Rush Attempts
17
23
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
3
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
20%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-21.90
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-19
-7
Sack EPA
-3.34
-1.36
Penalties
6
14
Penalty Yards
62
108
Penalty EPA
-6.48
-10.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model69.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+190
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,468
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+52.8
Home QB Adjustment
+21.4
Away QB Adjustment
-31.4
Market Regression
-1.5
Final Difference
143.1
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-31.4
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+21.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
5
Yards / Game
13
25
Passing Yards / Game
9
26
Rushing Yards / Game
18
17
EPA
EPA / Play
23
3
EPA / Pass
25
6
EPA / Rush
18
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
26
9
Fumbles / Game
32
24
Turnover EPA / Game
7
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
8
4th Down Efficiency
32
5
RZ Efficiency
27
3
Cardinals Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
29
Yards / Game
28
19
Passing Yards / Game
28
16
Rushing Yards / Game
31
12
EPA
EPA / Play
26
31
EPA / Pass
20
32
EPA / Rush
31
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
2
Interceptions / Game
13
28
Fumbles / Game
5
16
Turnover EPA / Game
19
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
24
4th Down Efficiency
1
24
RZ Efficiency
28
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U