WASCommanders
3-4
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
016
INDColts
3-3
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
7
0
10
17
Colts
0
3
3
10
16
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
362
324
Total Plays
61
54
Yards / Play
5.9
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.09
Passing Yards
266
189
Comp/Att
23/31(74%)
17/23(74%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.05
Rushing Yards
96
135
Rush Attempts
28
29
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
17%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.77
-9.49
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-12
Sack EPA
-3.85
-6.29
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
52
--
Penalty EPA
-5.11
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+21
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+53.0
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-86.8
Home QB Adjustment
-108.0
Away QB Adjustment
-21.1
Market Regression
+36.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-21.1
S. Ehlinger
Proj. Value
-5.5
Team Elo Adj
-108.0
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
28
Yards / Game
20
15
Passing Yards / Game
16
18
Rushing Yards / Game
12
20
EPA
EPA / Play
22
10
EPA / Pass
25
16
EPA / Rush
21
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
2
Interceptions / Game
25
24
Fumbles / Game
20
10
Turnover EPA / Game
21
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
9
4th Down Efficiency
21
17
RZ Efficiency
23
32
Colts Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
8
Yards / Game
27
3
Passing Yards / Game
18
10
Rushing Yards / Game
23
11
EPA
EPA / Play
32
8
EPA / Pass
30
8
EPA / Rush
30
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
8
Interceptions / Game
32
29
Fumbles / Game
32
29
Turnover EPA / Game
1
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
1
4th Down Efficiency
23
14
RZ Efficiency
29
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Colts
4-5-1
SU
4-6
ATS
1-9
O/U