WASCommanders
3-7
41
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
016
DALCowboys
3-7
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
10
3
15
35
Cowboys
3
10
3
0
16
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
338
247
Total Plays
66
57
Yards / Play
5.1
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.46
Passing Yards
156
187
Comp/Att
20/27(74%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.66
Rushing Yards
182
60
Rush Attempts
36
18
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
13
Passing 1st downs
6
6
Rushing 1st downs
14
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
54%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.47
-13.55
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-21
-28
Sack EPA
-6.03
-7.22
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
53
45
Penalty EPA
-5.36
-8.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model49.5%
Spread Pick
Commanders+2.5
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-41
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,392
Home Field
+6.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-134.3
Home QB Adjustment
-97.3
Away QB Adjustment
+37.0
Market Regression
-11.4
Final Difference
-3.4
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+37.0
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-97.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
28
Yards / Game
29
23
Passing Yards / Game
11
16
Rushing Yards / Game
26
31
EPA
EPA / Play
27
21
EPA / Pass
29
18
EPA / Rush
11
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
7
Interceptions / Game
27
23
Fumbles / Game
17
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
27
4th Down Efficiency
21
11
RZ Efficiency
15
20
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
5
Yards / Game
13
5
Passing Yards / Game
4
6
Rushing Yards / Game
17
15
EPA
EPA / Play
24
7
EPA / Pass
25
4
EPA / Rush
18
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
5
Interceptions / Game
17
7
Fumbles / Game
31
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
7
4th Down Efficiency
22
2
RZ Efficiency
29
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Cowboys
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U