WASCommanders
4-7
10
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
045
DALCowboys
7-3
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
10
0
0
10
Cowboys
7
13
0
19
39
Spread
-13
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
376
433
Total Plays
75
51
Yards / Play
5.0
8.5
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.44
Passing Yards
268
--
Comp/Att
28/44(64%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.58
Rushing Yards
108
100
Rush Attempts
27
18
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
21
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
47%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.53
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-32
--
Sack EPA
-8.40
--
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
25
48
Penalty EPA
-1.74
-4.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model84.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+294
Home nfelo
1,693
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+47.9
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
-20.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
+8.0
Net QB Adjustment
+9.3
Home QB Adjustment
+21.3
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
+42.2
Final Difference
300.0
Model Spread
-13.0
Quarterbacks
S. Howell
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
9
Yards / Game
24
7
Passing Yards / Game
6
12
Rushing Yards / Game
26
18
EPA
EPA / Play
26
9
EPA / Pass
26
7
EPA / Rush
10
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
17
Interceptions / Game
30
11
Fumbles / Game
22
18
Turnover EPA / Game
2
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
17
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
6
22
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
32
Yards / Game
4
32
Passing Yards / Game
15
7
Rushing Yards / Game
15
27
EPA
EPA / Play
2
32
EPA / Pass
3
32
EPA / Rush
7
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
2
Interceptions / Game
13
29
Fumbles / Game
4
13
Turnover EPA / Game
17
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
26
4th Down Efficiency
15
29
RZ Efficiency
12
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cowboys
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-3-1
O/U