WASCommanders
5-6
14
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
038
DALCowboys
5-6
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
7
0
7
14
Cowboys
0
11
0
21
32
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
280
275
Total Plays
60
65
Yards / Play
4.7
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.29
+0.15
Passing Yards
224
93
Comp/Att
26/37(70%)
11/22(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
4.2
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.10
Rushing Yards
56
182
Rush Attempts
19
42
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-13.48
+3.97
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-27
-9
Sack EPA
-9.32
-2.12
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
43
25
Penalty EPA
-9.68
-4.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model49.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+59.9
Base HFA
+55.6
Divisional Adj
-25.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.4
Time Adj
+9.9
Net QB Adjustment
-7.0
Home QB Adjustment
-10.5
Away QB Adjustment
-3.5
Market Regression
-17.0
Final Difference
5.3
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
-10.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
9
Yards / Game
17
6
Passing Yards / Game
14
1
Rushing Yards / Game
28
8
EPA
EPA / Play
25
16
EPA / Pass
14
20
EPA / Rush
29
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
22
Interceptions / Game
17
25
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
6
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
29
4th Down Efficiency
6
6
RZ Efficiency
17
22
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
27
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
27
15
Rushing Yards / Game
2
32
EPA
EPA / Play
10
13
EPA / Pass
19
8
EPA / Rush
1
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
12
Interceptions / Game
17
9
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
19
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
7
4th Down Efficiency
11
23
RZ Efficiency
7
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Cowboys
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U