WASCommanders
6-8
14
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
056
DALCowboys
10-4
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
7
0
7
14
Cowboys
15
21
1
7
44
Spread
-10
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
257
497
Total Plays
57
73
Yards / Play
4.5
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.36
+0.36
Passing Yards
172
389
Comp/Att
15/32(47%)
30/42(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
9.3
EPA / Pass
-0.56
+0.59
Rushing Yards
85
108
Rush Attempts
20
28
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
28
Passing 1st downs
9
20
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
23%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
6
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.80
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-16
-11
Sack EPA
-5.21
-3.55
Penalties
1
3
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+215
Home nfelo
1,645
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
+39.3
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
-16.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.8
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
+29.0
Home QB Adjustment
-13.2
Away QB Adjustment
-42.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-42.2
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
-13.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
8
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
18
9
Rushing Yards / Game
11
20
EPA
EPA / Play
21
2
EPA / Pass
25
1
EPA / Rush
14
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
20
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
20
9
Turnover EPA / Game
12
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
2
4th Down Efficiency
22
25
RZ Efficiency
26
21
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
25
Yards / Game
2
22
Passing Yards / Game
7
22
Rushing Yards / Game
9
8
EPA
EPA / Play
6
27
EPA / Pass
4
25
EPA / Rush
20
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
12
11
Turnover EPA / Game
20
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
31
4th Down Efficiency
12
22
RZ Efficiency
5
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cowboys
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U