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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ cowboys week 16, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
6-8
14
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
56
DALCowboys
10-4
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
7
0
7
14
Cowboys
15
21
1
7
44

Spread

DAL logo
-10

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
257
497
Total Plays
57
73
Yards / Play
4.5
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.36
+0.36
Passing Yards
172
389
Comp/Att
15/32(47%)
30/42(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
9.3
EPA / Pass
-0.56
+0.59
Rushing Yards
85
108
Rush Attempts
20
28
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
14
28
Passing 1st downs
9
20
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
23%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
6
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.80
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-16
-11
Sack EPA
-5.21
-3.55
Penalties
1
3
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+215
Home nfelo
1,645
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
+39.3
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
-16.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.8
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
+29.0
Home QB Adjustment
-13.2
Away QB Adjustment
-42.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

T. Heinicke headshot

T. Heinicke

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-42.2
Value
Ptile
10/03
6.3
89
10/10
-5.1
19
10/17
-3.8
25
10/24
3.6
79
10/31
-5.4
17
11/14
0.0
54
11/21
3.4
77
11/29
-0.4
49
12/05
-0.1
52
12/12
-9.6
5
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
-13.2
Value
Ptile
10/03
7.2
91
10/10
2.5
71
10/17
11.6
98
11/07
-2.3
36
11/14
6.6
90
11/21
-10.4
4
11/25
6.0
87
12/02
-1.6
41
12/12
-9.7
4
12/19
-0.9
46

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
23
8
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
18
9
Rushing Yards / Game
11
20

EPA

EPA / Play
21
2
EPA / Pass
25
1
EPA / Rush
14
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
20
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
20
9
Turnover EPA / Game
12
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
2
4th Down Efficiency
22
25
RZ Efficiency
26
21
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
1
25
Yards / Game
2
22
Passing Yards / Game
7
22
Rushing Yards / Game
9
8

EPA

EPA / Play
6
27
EPA / Pass
4
25
EPA / Rush
20
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
12
11
Turnover EPA / Game
20
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
31
4th Down Efficiency
12
22
RZ Efficiency
5
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
-11
L
L
O
10/17
-18
L
L
U
10/24
-14
L
L
U
10/31
-7
L
L
U
11/14
10
W
W
U
11/21
6
W
W
O
11/29
2
W
W
U
12/05
2
W
W
U
12/12
-7
L
L
U
12/21
-10
L
P
O
DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
24
W
W
O
10/17
6
W
W
O
10/31
4
W
W
U
11/07
-14
L
L
U
11/14
40
W
W
U
11/21
-10
L
L
U
11/25
-3
L
L
O
12/02
10
W
W
U
12/12
7
W
W
U
12/19
15
W
W
U