WASCommanders
7-3
18
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
46°F
9 mph
26
PHIEagles
7-2
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
46°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
0
3
8
18
Eagles
0
3
3
20
26
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
266
434
Total Plays
64
70
Yards / Play
4.2
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.08
Passing Yards
173
206
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.03
Rushing Yards
93
228
Rush Attempts
28
40
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.32
+0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
13
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
25%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.07
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-20
-15
Sack EPA
-4.52
-3.20
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
25
49
Penalty EPA
-2.77
-5.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+123
Home nfelo
1,632
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+22.8
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
-18.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.3
Home QB Adjustment
+12.2
Away QB Adjustment
+27.5
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+27.5
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
1
Yards / Game
5
1
Passing Yards / Game
18
14
Rushing Yards / Game
4
4
EPA
EPA / Play
4
1
EPA / Pass
6
1
EPA / Rush
2
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
12
Interceptions / Game
8
6
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
26
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
8
4th Down Efficiency
1
21
RZ Efficiency
6
6
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
22
Yards / Game
8
17
Passing Yards / Game
25
20
Rushing Yards / Game
2
31
EPA
EPA / Play
7
29
EPA / Pass
7
20
EPA / Rush
4
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
13
Interceptions / Game
3
24
Fumbles / Game
8
6
Turnover EPA / Game
31
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
16
4th Down Efficiency
3
29
RZ Efficiency
10
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Eagles
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U