WASCommanders
6-5
27
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
35°F
3 mph
22
PHIEagles
5-7
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
35°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
7
14
6
27
Eagles
3
10
0
3
16
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
334
383
Total Plays
47
77
Yards / Play
7.1
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.01
Passing Yards
227
288
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
32/47(68%)
Yards / Pass
10.3
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.08
Rushing Yards
107
95
Rush Attempts
23
26
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
24
Passing 1st downs
10
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
29%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
9
3rd Down Attempts
7
18
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.26
-8.14
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-7
-26
Sack EPA
-2.97
-7.41
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
86
54
Penalty EPA
-6.18
-5.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-25
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+31.4
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-36.4
Home QB Adjustment
-9.5
Away QB Adjustment
+26.9
Market Regression
-30.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+26.9
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-9.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
11
Yards / Game
3
12
Passing Yards / Game
12
3
Rushing Yards / Game
20
15
EPA
EPA / Play
5
10
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
6
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
19
Interceptions / Game
14
8
Fumbles / Game
16
17
Turnover EPA / Game
15
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
19
4th Down Efficiency
14
11
RZ Efficiency
30
3
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
18
Yards / Game
20
28
Passing Yards / Game
22
30
Rushing Yards / Game
9
24
EPA
EPA / Play
16
27
EPA / Pass
20
26
EPA / Rush
13
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
29
Interceptions / Game
16
18
Fumbles / Game
7
20
Turnover EPA / Game
23
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
32
4th Down Efficiency
18
20
RZ Efficiency
25
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
6-3-1
SU
8-2
ATS
8-2
O/U
Eagles
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U