WASCommanders
5-10
10
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
53°F
11 mph
34
PHIEagles
7-8
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
53°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
0
7
3
10
Eagles
3
7
3
21
34
Spread
-7
Total
PUSH
44
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
390
Total Plays
71
60
Yards / Play
5.3
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.17
Passing Yards
247
315
Comp/Att
22/45(49%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.20
Rushing Yards
130
75
Rush Attempts
25
19
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.76
-8.76
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-20
Sack EPA
-1.39
-5.76
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
71
75
Penalty EPA
-4.95
+1.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model77.3%
Spread Pick
Eagles-7.0
Expected Value
+9.7%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+251
Home nfelo
1,650
Away nfelo
1,448
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.5
Home QB Adjustment
+12.9
Away QB Adjustment
-2.6
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
213.3
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
R. Grossman
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
9
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
8
15
Rushing Yards / Game
27
16
EPA
EPA / Play
22
12
EPA / Pass
22
10
EPA / Rush
15
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
21
Interceptions / Game
29
18
Fumbles / Game
24
4
Turnover EPA / Game
6
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
12
4th Down Efficiency
29
14
RZ Efficiency
28
27
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
21
Yards / Game
5
12
Passing Yards / Game
10
21
Rushing Yards / Game
5
17
EPA
EPA / Play
8
20
EPA / Pass
15
19
EPA / Rush
3
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
12
Interceptions / Game
31
22
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
3
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
17
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
16
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Eagles
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U