WASCommanders
2-2
19
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
025
ATLFalcons
4-0
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
7
0
12
19
Falcons
0
3
3
13
19
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
270
418
Total Plays
58
78
Yards / Play
4.7
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.08
Passing Yards
219
242
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
24/43(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.24
-0.21
Rushing Yards
51
176
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
2.1
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.18
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
29
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
33%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-13.07
-14.77
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
-0.88
-7.04
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
51
62
Penalty EPA
-5.03
-5.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+183
Home nfelo
1,514
Away nfelo
1,419
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.4
Home QB Adjustment
+11.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.0
Market Regression
-26.4
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
14
Yards / Game
15
15
Passing Yards / Game
7
3
Rushing Yards / Game
20
14
EPA
EPA / Play
13
15
EPA / Pass
6
17
EPA / Rush
28
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
24
Interceptions / Game
9
10
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
19
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
27
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
11
26
Falcons Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
19
Yards / Game
5
26
Passing Yards / Game
4
11
Rushing Yards / Game
19
26
EPA
EPA / Play
16
20
EPA / Pass
8
20
EPA / Rush
29
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
26
Interceptions / Game
24
25
Fumbles / Game
29
1
Turnover EPA / Game
7
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
10
4th Down Efficiency
14
22
RZ Efficiency
17
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U