WASCommanders
2-3
24
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
016
ATLFalcons
3-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
14
7
0
24
Falcons
7
3
0
6
16
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
193
402
Total Plays
50
80
Yards / Play
3.9
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.16
Passing Yards
121
296
Comp/Att
14/23(61%)
28/47(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.18
Rushing Yards
72
106
Rush Attempts
22
30
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
25
Passing 1st downs
9
18
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
20%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-13.52
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-30
-11
Sack EPA
-5.98
-4.55
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
40
31
Penalty EPA
-5.47
-3.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,465
Home Field
+58.3
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.5
Home QB Adjustment
-9.4
Away QB Adjustment
-9.9
Market Regression
-3.6
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
S. Howell
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
D. Ridder
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-9.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
17
Yards / Game
24
10
Passing Yards / Game
6
10
Rushing Yards / Game
26
19
EPA
EPA / Play
26
12
EPA / Pass
26
14
EPA / Rush
10
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
20
Interceptions / Game
30
29
Fumbles / Game
22
21
Turnover EPA / Game
2
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
3
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
6
4
Falcons Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
32
Yards / Game
17
32
Passing Yards / Game
27
7
Rushing Yards / Game
8
27
EPA
EPA / Play
27
32
EPA / Pass
23
32
EPA / Rush
25
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
2
Interceptions / Game
27
29
Fumbles / Game
22
13
Turnover EPA / Game
6
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
26
4th Down Efficiency
29
29
RZ Efficiency
30
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-6-1
SU
3-7
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Falcons
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U