nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ falcons week 6, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

WAS logo
WASCommanders
2-3
24
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
16
ATLFalcons
3-2
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
14
7
0
24
Falcons
7
3
0
6
16

Spread

WAS logo
+1.5

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
193
402
Total Plays
50
80
Yards / Play
3.9
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.16
Passing Yards
121
296
Comp/Att
14/23(61%)
28/47(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.18
Rushing Yards
72
106
Rush Attempts
22
30
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
13
25
Passing 1st downs
9
18
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
20%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-13.52
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-30
-11
Sack EPA
-5.98
-4.55
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
40
31
Penalty EPA
-5.47
-3.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+66
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+58.2
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.5
Home QB Adjustment
-9.3
Away QB Adjustment
-9.8
Market Regression
-3.4
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

S. Howell headshot

S. Howell

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-9.8
Value
Ptile
01/08
0.1
53
09/10
-5.5
16
09/17
3.3
72
09/24
-15.6
0
10/01
2.4
66
10/05
2.7
68
D. Ridder headshot

D. Ridder

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-9.3
Value
Ptile
12/18
-6.7
10
12/24
-1.3
44
01/01
-2.2
35
01/08
1.5
63
09/10
-4.6
22
09/17
2.5
67
09/24
-10.6
2
10/01
-8.0
8
10/08
9.4
96

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Commanders logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
25
17
Yards / Game
24
10
Passing Yards / Game
6
10
Rushing Yards / Game
26
19

EPA

EPA / Play
26
12
EPA / Pass
26
14
EPA / Rush
10
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
20
Interceptions / Game
30
29
Fumbles / Game
22
21
Turnover EPA / Game
2
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
3
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
6
4
Falcons Offense vs Commanders Defense
Falcons logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
26
32
Yards / Game
17
32
Passing Yards / Game
27
7
Rushing Yards / Game
8
27

EPA

EPA / Play
27
32
EPA / Pass
23
32
EPA / Rush
25
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
2
Interceptions / Game
27
29
Fumbles / Game
22
13
Turnover EPA / Game
6
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
26
4th Down Efficiency
29
29
RZ Efficiency
30
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

3-6-1
SU
3-7
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
0
T
L
P
12/18
-8
L
L
U
12/24
-17
L
L
O
01/01
-14
L
L
U
01/08
20
W
W
U
09/10
4
W
L
U
09/17
2
W
W
O
09/24
-34
L
L
U
10/01
-3
L
W
O
10/05
-20
L
L
O
ATL logo

Falcons

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-3
L
L
U
12/18
-3
L
W
U
12/24
-8
L
L
U
01/01
1
W
L
U
01/08
13
W
W
O
09/10
14
W
W
U
09/17
1
W
L
O
09/24
-14
L
L
U
10/01
-16
L
L
U
10/08
2
W
L
U