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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ falcons week 15, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
3-10
26
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
27
ATLFalcons
3-10
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
13
0
6
26
Falcons
14
3
7
3
27

Spread

WAS logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
50

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
476
243
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
7.0
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.12
Passing Yards
373
189
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
29/38(76%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.22
Rushing Yards
103
54
Rush Attempts
21
21
Yards / Rush
4.9
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.54
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
18
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
20%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
6
3
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
4
2
Turnover EPA
-29.56
-3.07
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-21
Sack EPA
-4.33
-10.32
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
66
73
Penalty EPA
-7.04
-1.96

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+168
Home nfelo
1,436
Away nfelo
1,394
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+42.0
Home QB Adjustment
-16.4
Away QB Adjustment
-58.5
Market Regression
+0.6
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-58.5
Value
Ptile
12/16
5.9
86
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-16.4
Value
Ptile
09/29
5.9
86
10/07
9.1
94
10/20
6.1
87
10/27
-7.7
9
11/03
-3.0
32
11/10
1.2
59
11/17
-5.4
18
11/21
1.3
60
12/01
-0.1
49
12/08
-0.9
45

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Commanders logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
23
27
Yards / Game
10
26
Passing Yards / Game
19
11
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31

EPA

EPA / Play
28
32
EPA / Pass
22
30
EPA / Rush
11
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
11
Interceptions / Game
20
29
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
32
4th Down Efficiency
29
27
RZ Efficiency
18
20
Falcons Offense vs Commanders Defense
Falcons logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
20
30
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
9
26
Rushing Yards / Game
32
17

EPA

EPA / Play
17
24
EPA / Pass
18
27
EPA / Rush
23
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
14
Interceptions / Game
19
14
Fumbles / Game
17
11
Turnover EPA / Game
19
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
4
4th Down Efficiency
21
29
RZ Efficiency
19
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
10
W
W
U
10/13
-15
L
L
U
10/20
4
W
W
O
10/27
-24
L
L
O
11/03
6
W
W
O
11/07
-7
L
L
O
11/17
-8
L
L
U
11/25
-21
L
L
U
12/01
-7
L
L
U
12/08
-35
L
L
O
ATL logo

Falcons

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
-7
L
L
O
10/07
-2
L
L
O
10/20
8
W
W
O
10/27
-14
L
L
U
11/03
-24
L
L
U
11/10
-23
L
L
U
11/17
-13
L
L
O
11/21
-4
L
W
U
12/01
3
W
W
O
12/08
-1
L
W
U