WASCommanders
3-10
26
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
027
ATLFalcons
3-10
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
13
0
6
26
Falcons
14
3
7
3
27
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
476
243
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
7.0
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.12
Passing Yards
373
189
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
29/38(76%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.22
Rushing Yards
103
54
Rush Attempts
21
21
Yards / Rush
4.9
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.54
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
18
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
20%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
6
3
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
4
2
Turnover EPA
-29.56
-3.07
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-21
Sack EPA
-4.33
-10.32
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
66
73
Penalty EPA
-7.04
-1.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+171
Home nfelo
1,437
Away nfelo
1,392
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+42.0
Home QB Adjustment
-16.4
Away QB Adjustment
-58.5
Market Regression
-1.1
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-58.5
Value
Ptile
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-16.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
27
Yards / Game
10
26
Passing Yards / Game
19
11
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31
EPA
EPA / Play
28
32
EPA / Pass
22
30
EPA / Rush
11
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
11
Interceptions / Game
20
29
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
32
4th Down Efficiency
29
27
RZ Efficiency
18
20
Falcons Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
30
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
9
26
Rushing Yards / Game
32
17
EPA
EPA / Play
17
24
EPA / Pass
18
27
EPA / Rush
23
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
14
Interceptions / Game
19
14
Fumbles / Game
17
11
Turnover EPA / Game
19
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
4
4th Down Efficiency
21
29
RZ Efficiency
19
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U