WASCommanders
1-4
19
TBD
MetLife Stadium
62°F
020
NYGGiants
0-5
TBD
MetLife Stadium
62°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
10
0
9
19
Giants
10
3
0
1
14
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
337
240
Total Plays
70
46
Yards / Play
4.8
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.02
Passing Yards
251
108
Comp/Att
31/43(72%)
12/19(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.02
Rushing Yards
86
132
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
16
Passing 1st downs
16
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
53%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.37
-6.37
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-29
-4
Sack EPA
-11.84
-1.26
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
50
30
Penalty EPA
-9.57
-2.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+63
Home nfelo
1,402
Away nfelo
1,342
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.8
Home QB Adjustment
-15.1
Away QB Adjustment
-13.3
Market Regression
-66.5
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
K. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-13.3
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-15.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
9
Yards / Game
29
12
Passing Yards / Game
11
26
Rushing Yards / Game
26
11
EPA
EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
29
17
EPA / Rush
11
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
2
Interceptions / Game
27
20
Fumbles / Game
17
13
Turnover EPA / Game
10
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
24
4th Down Efficiency
21
22
RZ Efficiency
15
3
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
5
Yards / Game
31
5
Passing Yards / Game
26
6
Rushing Yards / Game
19
15
EPA
EPA / Play
28
7
EPA / Pass
27
4
EPA / Rush
19
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
5
Interceptions / Game
11
7
Fumbles / Game
30
4
Turnover EPA / Game
12
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
7
4th Down Efficiency
8
2
RZ Efficiency
31
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Giants
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U