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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ giants week 6, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
1-4
19
TBD
MetLife Stadium
62°F
0
20
NYGGiants
0-5
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
62°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
10
0
9
19
Giants
10
3
0
1
14

Spread

WAS logo
+1.5

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
337
240
Total Plays
70
46
Yards / Play
4.8
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.02
Passing Yards
251
108
Comp/Att
31/43(72%)
12/19(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.02
Rushing Yards
86
132
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
24
16
Passing 1st downs
16
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
53%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.37
-6.37
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-29
-4
Sack EPA
-11.84
-1.26
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
50
30
Penalty EPA
-9.57
-2.60

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+66
Home nfelo
1,402
Away nfelo
1,340
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.8
Home QB Adjustment
-15.1
Away QB Adjustment
-13.3
Market Regression
-66.5
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

K. Allen headshot

K. Allen

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-13.3
Value
Ptile
10/13
-0.8
47
10/27
-15.5
0
11/03
-4.1
25
11/10
-0.5
49
11/17
-11.8
2
11/24
1.7
65
12/01
-3.0
31
12/08
-3.5
28
12/15
-3.8
26
10/11
-4.2
18
D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-15.1
Value
Ptile
11/10
1.4
64
11/24
1.8
66
12/01
-5.8
16
12/22
10.5
97
12/29
-1.7
40
09/14
0.3
48
09/20
-4.0
19
09/27
-3.7
20
10/04
-5.0
15
10/11
-4.8
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Commanders logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
25
9
Yards / Game
29
12
Passing Yards / Game
11
26
Rushing Yards / Game
26
11

EPA

EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
29
17
EPA / Rush
11
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
2
Interceptions / Game
27
20
Fumbles / Game
17
13
Turnover EPA / Game
10
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
24
4th Down Efficiency
21
22
RZ Efficiency
15
3
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Giants logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
31
5
Yards / Game
31
5
Passing Yards / Game
26
6
Rushing Yards / Game
19
15

EPA

EPA / Play
28
7
EPA / Pass
27
4
EPA / Rush
19
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
5
Interceptions / Game
11
7
Fumbles / Game
30
4
Turnover EPA / Game
12
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
7
4th Down Efficiency
8
2
RZ Efficiency
31
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
8
W
W
O
12/08
-5
L
W
U
12/15
-10
L
L
O
12/22
-6
L
L
O
12/29
-31
L
L
O
09/13
10
W
W
O
09/20
-15
L
L
U
09/27
-14
L
L
O
10/04
-14
L
W
O
10/11
-20
L
L
U
NYG logo

Giants

2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
-18
L
L
O
12/09
-6
L
W
U
12/15
16
W
W
O
12/22
6
W
W
O
12/29
-17
L
L
O
09/14
-10
L
L
U
09/20
-4
L
W
U
09/27
-27
L
L
O
10/04
-8
L
W
U
10/11
-3
L
W
O