WASCommanders
3-3
23
TBD
MetLife Stadium
61°F
11 mph
27
NYGGiants
4-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
61°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
10
0
10
23
Giants
0
13
0
14
27
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
480
393
Total Plays
69
60
Yards / Play
7.0
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.13
Passing Yards
232
329
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
26/40(65%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.19
Rushing Yards
248
64
Rush Attempts
38
19
Yards / Rush
6.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
22
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
11
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
46%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-18.44
-8.65
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-26
-8
Sack EPA
-4.73
-1.04
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
55
30
Penalty EPA
-5.54
-4.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+172
Home nfelo
1,589
Away nfelo
1,446
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-27.0
Home QB Adjustment
+14.0
Away QB Adjustment
+40.9
Market Regression
-29.8
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+40.9
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
10
Yards / Game
9
31
Passing Yards / Game
15
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
24
EPA
EPA / Play
7
20
EPA / Pass
6
22
EPA / Rush
2
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
32
Interceptions / Game
3
3
Fumbles / Game
6
12
Turnover EPA / Game
30
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
30
4th Down Efficiency
6
17
RZ Efficiency
5
4
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
22
Yards / Game
16
28
Passing Yards / Game
32
32
Rushing Yards / Game
14
9
EPA
EPA / Play
3
23
EPA / Pass
12
21
EPA / Rush
7
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
21
Interceptions / Game
14
4
Fumbles / Game
13
15
Turnover EPA / Game
24
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
31
4th Down Efficiency
17
23
RZ Efficiency
13
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Giants
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U