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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ giants week 9, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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WAS logo
WASCommanders
6-2
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
6 mph
22
NYGGiants
2-6
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
14
3
3
27
Giants
0
7
3
12
22

Spread

WAS logo
-4

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
358
326
Total Plays
60
61
Yards / Play
6.0
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.16
Passing Yards
--
162
Comp/Att
15/22(68%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.45
-0.07
Rushing Yards
149
164
Rush Attempts
38
31
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
11
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
42%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.10
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-9.79
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
52
51
Penalty EPA
-5.30
-5.42

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-88
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,508
Home Field
+38.5
Base HFA
+42.8
Divisional Adj
-19.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-46.9
Home QB Adjustment
-13.7
Away QB Adjustment
+33.1
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Daniels headshot

J. Daniels

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+33.1
Value
Ptile
09/08
5.9
84
09/15
-0.7
44
09/23
8.3
93
09/29
7.2
91
10/06
1.8
61
10/13
3.7
73
10/20
-2.8
28
10/27
4.2
76
D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-13.7
Value
Ptile
10/08
-7.8
9
11/05
-8.9
5
09/08
-12.2
0
09/15
0.5
52
09/22
4.1
76
09/26
0.9
54
10/06
3.0
69
10/13
-3.9
23
10/20
-10.2
2
10/28
-4.7
18

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Commanders logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
6
20
Yards / Game
5
23
Passing Yards / Game
18
6
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26

EPA

EPA / Play
4
22
EPA / Pass
6
29
EPA / Rush
2
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
10
Interceptions / Game
8
31
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
19
4th Down Efficiency
1
16
RZ Efficiency
6
10
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Giants logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
31
22
Yards / Game
30
17
Passing Yards / Game
23
20
Rushing Yards / Game
22
31

EPA

EPA / Play
29
29
EPA / Pass
31
20
EPA / Rush
24
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
19
24
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
6
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
16
4th Down Efficiency
19
29
RZ Efficiency
32
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
-17
L
L
U
01/07
-28
L
L
O
09/08
-17
L
L
O
09/15
3
W
W
U
09/23
5
W
W
O
09/29
28
W
W
O
10/06
21
W
W
O
10/13
-7
L
L
O
10/20
33
W
W
U
10/27
3
W
W
U
NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
-1
L
W
O
01/07
17
W
W
U
09/08
-22
L
L
U
09/15
-3
L
L
U
09/22
6
W
W
U
09/26
-5
L
W
U
10/06
9
W
W
O
10/13
-10
L
L
U
10/20
-25
L
L
U
10/28
-8
L
L
O