WASCommanders
6-2
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
6 mph
22
NYGGiants
2-6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
14
3
3
27
Giants
0
7
3
12
22
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
358
326
Total Plays
60
61
Yards / Play
6.0
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.16
Passing Yards
--
162
Comp/Att
15/22(68%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.45
-0.07
Rushing Yards
149
164
Rush Attempts
38
31
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
11
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
42%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.10
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-9.79
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
52
51
Penalty EPA
-5.30
-5.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-87
Home nfelo
1,426
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+38.6
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-46.9
Home QB Adjustment
-13.8
Away QB Adjustment
+33.1
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+33.1
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-13.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
20
Yards / Game
5
23
Passing Yards / Game
18
6
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26
EPA
EPA / Play
4
22
EPA / Pass
6
29
EPA / Rush
2
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
10
Interceptions / Game
8
31
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
19
4th Down Efficiency
1
16
RZ Efficiency
6
10
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
22
Yards / Game
30
17
Passing Yards / Game
23
20
Rushing Yards / Game
22
31
EPA
EPA / Play
29
29
EPA / Pass
31
20
EPA / Rush
24
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
19
24
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
6
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
16
4th Down Efficiency
19
29
RZ Efficiency
32
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Giants
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U