WASCommanders
7-5
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
40°F
9 mph
20
NYGGiants
7-4
TBD
MetLife Stadium
40°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
10
3
0
7
20
Giants
0
13
7
0
20
Spread
+2.5
Total
PUSH
40
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
411
316
Total Plays
82
65
Yards / Play
5.0
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.10
Passing Yards
246
182
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
25/31(81%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.07
Rushing Yards
165
134
Rush Attempts
36
30
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
11
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
21%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.39
-4.96
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-29
-18
Sack EPA
-9.73
-7.07
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
55
34
Penalty EPA
-6.61
-2.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model53.1%
Spread Pick
Giants+2.5
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+6
Home nfelo
1,396
Away nfelo
1,459
Home Field
+36.0
Base HFA
+40.1
Divisional Adj
-18.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+32.8
Home QB Adjustment
+14.7
Away QB Adjustment
-18.1
Market Regression
-2.7
Final Difference
-21.5
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-18.1
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
22
Yards / Game
20
25
Passing Yards / Game
16
2
Rushing Yards / Game
12
28
EPA
EPA / Play
22
31
EPA / Pass
25
21
EPA / Rush
21
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
5
Interceptions / Game
25
32
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
21
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
5
4th Down Efficiency
21
29
RZ Efficiency
23
10
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
8
Yards / Game
19
3
Passing Yards / Game
25
10
Rushing Yards / Game
6
11
EPA
EPA / Play
8
8
EPA / Pass
17
8
EPA / Rush
3
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
8
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
10
29
Turnover EPA / Game
32
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
1
4th Down Efficiency
16
14
RZ Efficiency
5
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Giants
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U