WASCommanders
6-7
16
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
64°F
12 mph
13
JAXJaguars
4-9
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
64°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
0
3
10
16
Jaguars
0
4
0
3
7
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
36
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
245
192
Total Plays
61
49
Yards / Play
4.0
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.28
Passing Yards
136
20
Comp/Att
16/25(64%)
9/17(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
1.2
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-1.25
Rushing Yards
109
172
Rush Attempts
33
26
Yards / Rush
3.3
6.6
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
11
Passing 1st downs
10
2
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
47%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.49
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-15
-37
Sack EPA
-4.59
-14.33
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
--
55
Penalty EPA
--
-6.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model70.4%
Spread Pick
Commanders+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+117
Home nfelo
1,466
Away nfelo
1,431
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+25.3
Home QB Adjustment
-74.0
Away QB Adjustment
-99.2
Market Regression
+2.8
Final Difference
150.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Johnson
Proj. Value
-4.7
Team Elo Adj
-99.2
C. Kessler
Proj. Value
-4.5
Team Elo Adj
-74.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
4
Yards / Game
28
5
Passing Yards / Game
26
5
Rushing Yards / Game
17
20
EPA
EPA / Play
25
6
EPA / Pass
28
7
EPA / Rush
12
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
2
Interceptions / Game
23
23
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
14
4th Down Efficiency
17
1
RZ Efficiency
24
4
Jaguars Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
15
Yards / Game
27
17
Passing Yards / Game
31
19
Rushing Yards / Game
20
16
EPA
EPA / Play
30
21
EPA / Pass
30
15
EPA / Rush
23
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
17
11
Fumbles / Game
32
10
Turnover EPA / Game
8
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
29
4th Down Efficiency
27
2
RZ Efficiency
31
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
2-6-2
ATS
5-5
O/U