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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ jaguars week 15, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
6-7
16
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
64°F
12 mph
13
JAXJaguars
4-9
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
64°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
0
3
10
16
Jaguars
0
4
0
3
7

Spread

WAS logo
+7

Total

UNDER
36

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
245
192
Total Plays
61
49
Yards / Play
4.0
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.28
Passing Yards
136
20
Comp/Att
16/25(64%)
9/17(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
1.2
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-1.25
Rushing Yards
109
172
Rush Attempts
33
26
Yards / Rush
3.3
6.6
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
16
11
Passing 1st downs
10
2
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
47%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.49
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-15
-37
Sack EPA
-4.59
-14.33
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
--
55
Penalty EPA
--
-6.56

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model70.4%
Spread Pick
WAS logo
Commanders+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+118
Home nfelo
1,465
Away nfelo
1,431
Home Field
+58.1
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+25.3
Home QB Adjustment
-74.0
Away QB Adjustment
-99.2
Market Regression
+2.9
Final Difference
150.8
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

J. Johnson headshot

J. Johnson

Proj. Value
-3.8
Team Elo Adj
-99.2
Value
Ptile
10/04
-3.3
29
10/11
-2.7
34
10/18
-4.5
22
10/25
-8.4
6
12/04
0.8
57
C. Kessler headshot

C. Kessler

Proj. Value
-4.5
Team Elo Adj
-74.0
Value
Ptile
09/25
-3.0
27
10/02
-0.4
45
10/09
-3.3
25
10/16
0.5
53
10/23
-3.4
23
11/06
-2.2
32
11/10
-3.1
26
11/20
-10.1
2
12/02
-2.7
30
12/06
-2.6
31

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Commanders logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
29
4
Yards / Game
28
5
Passing Yards / Game
26
5
Rushing Yards / Game
17
20

EPA

EPA / Play
25
6
EPA / Pass
28
7
EPA / Rush
12
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
2
Interceptions / Game
23
23
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
14
4th Down Efficiency
17
1
RZ Efficiency
24
4
Jaguars Offense vs Commanders Defense
Jaguars logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
31
15
Yards / Game
27
17
Passing Yards / Game
31
19
Rushing Yards / Game
20
16

EPA

EPA / Play
30
21
EPA / Pass
30
15
EPA / Rush
23
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
17
11
Fumbles / Game
32
10
Turnover EPA / Game
8
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
29
4th Down Efficiency
27
2
RZ Efficiency
31
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
-24
L
L
O
10/14
6
W
W
U
10/21
3
W
W
U
10/28
7
W
W
U
11/04
-24
L
L
O
11/11
13
W
W
U
11/18
-2
L
W
O
11/22
-8
L
L
O
12/03
-15
L
L
U
12/09
-24
L
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
2-6-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
19
W
W
O
10/07
-16
L
L
U
10/14
-33
L
L
O
10/21
-13
L
L
U
10/28
-6
L
L
U
11/11
-3
L
P
O
11/18
-4
L
P
U
11/25
-3
L
L
O
12/02
6
W
W
U
12/06
-21
L
L
O