WASCommanders
4-10
28
TBD
MetLife Stadium
45°F
2 mph
30
NYJJets
5-9
TBD
MetLife Stadium
45°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
7
7
14
28
Jets
17
10
0
3
30
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
245
381
Total Plays
58
85
Yards / Play
4.2
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.13
Passing Yards
143
--
Comp/Att
16/35(46%)
27/49(55%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.47
-0.33
Rushing Yards
102
164
Rush Attempts
22
36
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
11
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
25%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-10.22
-10.01
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-13
--
Sack EPA
-2.28
--
Penalties
8
14
Penalty Yards
68
150
Penalty EPA
-9.44
-21.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,410
Home Field
+61.3
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.2
Home QB Adjustment
-25.1
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
S. Howell
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-25.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
10
Yards / Game
24
2
Passing Yards / Game
6
4
Rushing Yards / Game
26
25
EPA
EPA / Play
26
4
EPA / Pass
26
3
EPA / Rush
10
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
4
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
22
13
Turnover EPA / Game
2
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
12
4th Down Efficiency
10
5
RZ Efficiency
6
7
Jets Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
32
Yards / Game
31
32
Passing Yards / Game
30
7
Rushing Yards / Game
22
27
EPA
EPA / Play
31
32
EPA / Pass
32
32
EPA / Rush
32
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
2
Interceptions / Game
22
29
Fumbles / Game
32
13
Turnover EPA / Game
3
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
26
4th Down Efficiency
8
29
RZ Efficiency
32
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U