WASCommanders
3-6
27
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
54°F
021
CARPanthers
5-5
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
54°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
14
7
6
27
Panthers
7
7
0
7
21
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
369
297
Total Plays
65
49
Yards / Play
5.7
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.09
Passing Yards
179
186
Comp/Att
16/22(73%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.62
+0.10
Rushing Yards
190
111
Rush Attempts
40
21
Yards / Rush
4.8
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
46%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.65
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-27
-3
Sack EPA
-5.45
-1.79
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
69
65
Penalty EPA
-9.92
-6.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+105
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+39.8
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+93.0
Home QB Adjustment
+35.8
Away QB Adjustment
-57.1
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-57.1
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+35.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
20
Yards / Game
21
2
Passing Yards / Game
18
1
Rushing Yards / Game
11
18
EPA
EPA / Play
21
7
EPA / Pass
25
12
EPA / Rush
14
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
5
Interceptions / Game
21
27
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
12
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
22
18
RZ Efficiency
26
31
Panthers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
25
Yards / Game
30
22
Passing Yards / Game
29
22
Rushing Yards / Game
20
8
EPA
EPA / Play
32
27
EPA / Pass
32
25
EPA / Rush
17
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
10
Interceptions / Game
32
22
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
1
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
31
4th Down Efficiency
31
22
RZ Efficiency
25
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U