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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ panthers week 13, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
2-9
29
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
64°F
16 mph
21
CARPanthers
5-6
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
64°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
9
3
14
29
Panthers
14
0
0
7
21

Spread

WAS logo
+10.5

Total

OVER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
362
278
Total Plays
61
73
Yards / Play
5.9
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.15
Passing Yards
114
213
Comp/Att
13/26(50%)
27/46(59%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.29
-0.11
Rushing Yards
248
65
Rush Attempts
30
20
Yards / Rush
8.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.42
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
8
18
Rushing 1st downs
11
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
27%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
43%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
7
4
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.27
Sacks
5
7
Sack Yards
-33
-65
Sack EPA
-8.22
-10.43
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
65
43
Penalty EPA
-2.22
-3.44

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+261
Home nfelo
1,554
Away nfelo
1,297
Home Field
+48.9
Base HFA
+48.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-44.9
Home QB Adjustment
-76.2
Away QB Adjustment
-31.3
Market Regression
+12.0
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

D. Haskins headshot

D. Haskins

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-31.3
Value
Ptile
11/03
-3.9
25
11/17
-8.7
7
11/24
-6.3
15
K. Allen headshot

K. Allen

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-76.2
Value
Ptile
12/30
5.6
83
09/22
4.7
82
09/29
-2.6
34
10/06
-3.8
26
10/13
-0.8
47
10/27
-15.5
0
11/03
-4.1
25
11/10
-0.5
49
11/17
-11.8
2
11/24
1.7
65

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Panthers Defense
Commanders logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
31
Yards / Game
31
24
Passing Yards / Game
27
26
Rushing Yards / Game
23
29

EPA

EPA / Play
30
25
EPA / Pass
32
17
EPA / Rush
24
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
1
Interceptions / Game
19
10
Fumbles / Game
10
20
Turnover EPA / Game
11
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
21
4th Down Efficiency
21
31
RZ Efficiency
27
29
Panthers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Panthers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
20
27
Yards / Game
21
27
Passing Yards / Game
7
23
Rushing Yards / Game
14
31

EPA

EPA / Play
29
29
EPA / Pass
28
27
EPA / Rush
20
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
6
Interceptions / Game
30
13
Fumbles / Game
29
14
Turnover EPA / Game
3
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
32
4th Down Efficiency
12
30
RZ Efficiency
14
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-10
L
L
O
09/23
-16
L
L
O
09/29
-21
L
L
U
10/06
-26
L
L
U
10/13
1
W
L
U
10/20
-9
L
W
U
10/24
-10
L
W
U
11/03
-15
L
L
U
11/17
-17
L
L
O
11/24
3
W
W
U
CAR logo

Panthers

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
-6
L
L
U
09/22
18
W
W
O
09/29
6
W
W
U
10/06
7
W
W
O
10/13
11
W
W
O
10/27
-38
L
L
O
11/03
10
W
W
O
11/10
-8
L
L
U
11/17
-26
L
L
U
11/24
-3
L
W
O