WASCommanders
2-9
29
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
64°F
16 mph
21
CARPanthers
5-6
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
64°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
9
3
14
29
Panthers
14
0
0
7
21
Spread
+10.5
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
362
278
Total Plays
61
73
Yards / Play
5.9
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.15
Passing Yards
114
213
Comp/Att
13/26(50%)
27/46(59%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.29
-0.11
Rushing Yards
248
65
Rush Attempts
30
20
Yards / Rush
8.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.42
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
8
18
Rushing 1st downs
11
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
27%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
43%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
7
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.27
Sacks
5
7
Sack Yards
-33
-65
Sack EPA
-8.22
-10.43
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
65
43
Penalty EPA
-2.22
-3.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+261
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,298
Home Field
+48.5
Base HFA
+48.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-44.9
Home QB Adjustment
-76.2
Away QB Adjustment
-31.3
Market Regression
+12.0
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
D. Haskins
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-31.3
Value
Ptile
K. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-76.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
31
Yards / Game
31
24
Passing Yards / Game
27
26
Rushing Yards / Game
23
30
EPA
EPA / Play
30
25
EPA / Pass
32
17
EPA / Rush
24
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
1
Interceptions / Game
19
10
Fumbles / Game
10
20
Turnover EPA / Game
11
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
21
4th Down Efficiency
21
31
RZ Efficiency
27
29
Panthers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
27
Yards / Game
21
27
Passing Yards / Game
7
23
Rushing Yards / Game
14
31
EPA
EPA / Play
29
29
EPA / Pass
28
27
EPA / Rush
20
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
6
Interceptions / Game
30
13
Fumbles / Game
29
14
Turnover EPA / Game
3
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
32
4th Down Efficiency
12
30
RZ Efficiency
15
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Panthers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U