nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ patriots week 9, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

WAS logo
WASCommanders
3-5
20
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
6 mph
17
NEPatriots
2-6
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
7
10
0
20
Patriots
0
14
3
0
17

Spread

WAS logo
+3

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
432
327
Total Plays
77
63
Yards / Play
5.6
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.01
Passing Yards
308
--
Comp/Att
29/45(64%)
24/44(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.14
Rushing Yards
124
107
Rush Attempts
29
19
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
53%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.66
-1.89
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-4.24
--
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-4.23
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+58.5
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.8
Home QB Adjustment
-6.0
Away QB Adjustment
-0.1
Market Regression
+36.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

S. Howell headshot

S. Howell

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
Value
Ptile
01/08
0.1
53
09/10
-5.5
16
09/17
3.3
72
09/24
-15.6
0
10/01
2.4
66
10/05
2.7
68
10/15
-4.4
22
10/22
-8.1
8
10/29
12.0
99
M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
Value
Ptile
01/01
-2.4
33
01/08
-0.1
52
09/10
5.6
84
09/17
-1.0
44
09/24
0.7
53
10/01
-6.2
13
10/08
-9.0
5
10/15
-5.0
20
10/22
8.7
95
10/29
-3.1
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Patriots Defense
Commanders logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
25
14
Yards / Game
24
6
Passing Yards / Game
6
8
Rushing Yards / Game
26
3

EPA

EPA / Play
26
6
EPA / Pass
26
20
EPA / Rush
10
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
9
Interceptions / Game
30
23
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
7
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
6
5
Patriots Offense vs Commanders Defense
Patriots logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
31
32
Yards / Game
30
32
Passing Yards / Game
31
7
Rushing Yards / Game
25
27

EPA

EPA / Play
32
32
EPA / Pass
31
32
EPA / Rush
22
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
2
Interceptions / Game
30
29
Fumbles / Game
16
13
Turnover EPA / Game
4
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
26
4th Down Efficiency
32
29
RZ Efficiency
11
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-14
L
L
U
01/08
20
W
W
U
09/10
4
W
L
U
09/17
2
W
W
O
09/24
-34
L
L
U
10/01
-3
L
W
O
10/05
-20
L
L
O
10/15
8
W
W
U
10/22
-7
L
L
U
10/29
-7
L
P
O
NE logo

Patriots

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
2
W
L
O
01/08
-12
L
L
O
09/10
-5
L
L
O
09/17
-7
L
L
U
09/24
5
W
W
U
10/01
-35
L
L
U
10/08
-34
L
L
U
10/15
-4
L
L
U
10/22
4
W
W
O
10/29
-14
L
L
O