WASCommanders
3-5
20
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
6 mph
17
NEPatriots
2-6
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
7
10
0
20
Patriots
0
14
3
0
17
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
432
327
Total Plays
77
63
Yards / Play
5.6
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.01
Passing Yards
308
--
Comp/Att
29/45(64%)
24/44(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.14
Rushing Yards
124
107
Rush Attempts
29
19
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
53%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.66
-1.89
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-4.24
--
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-4.23
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+63
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+58.5
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.8
Home QB Adjustment
-6.0
Away QB Adjustment
-0.1
Market Regression
+36.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
S. Howell
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
14
Yards / Game
24
6
Passing Yards / Game
6
8
Rushing Yards / Game
26
3
EPA
EPA / Play
26
6
EPA / Pass
26
20
EPA / Rush
10
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
9
Interceptions / Game
30
23
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
7
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
6
5
Patriots Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
32
Yards / Game
30
32
Passing Yards / Game
31
7
Rushing Yards / Game
25
27
EPA
EPA / Play
32
32
EPA / Pass
31
32
EPA / Rush
22
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
2
Interceptions / Game
30
29
Fumbles / Game
16
13
Turnover EPA / Game
4
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
26
4th Down Efficiency
32
29
RZ Efficiency
11
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U