WASCommanders
5-6
17
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
015
OAKRaiders
6-5
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
0
0
10
17
Raiders
0
3
3
9
15
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
298
310
Total Plays
61
57
Yards / Play
4.9
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.03
Passing Yards
186
234
Comp/Att
23/30(77%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.02
Rushing Yards
112
76
Rush Attempts
30
16
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
54%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
8
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.24
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-10
-15
Sack EPA
-1.25
-2.76
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
47
--
Penalty EPA
-5.97
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+43
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+58.7
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+43.5
Home QB Adjustment
+0.6
Away QB Adjustment
-42.9
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-42.9
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
26
Yards / Game
21
14
Passing Yards / Game
18
11
Rushing Yards / Game
11
15
EPA
EPA / Play
21
28
EPA / Pass
25
28
EPA / Rush
14
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
11
Interceptions / Game
21
32
Fumbles / Game
20
26
Turnover EPA / Game
12
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
16
4th Down Efficiency
22
32
RZ Efficiency
26
32
Raiders Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
25
Yards / Game
8
22
Passing Yards / Game
2
22
Rushing Yards / Game
28
8
EPA
EPA / Play
19
27
EPA / Pass
15
25
EPA / Rush
28
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
10
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
32
11
Turnover EPA / Game
11
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
31
4th Down Efficiency
7
22
RZ Efficiency
29
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U