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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ raiders week 13, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
5-6
17
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
15
OAKRaiders
6-5
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
0
0
10
17
Raiders
0
3
3
9
15

Spread

WAS logo
+1

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
298
310
Total Plays
61
57
Yards / Play
4.9
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.03
Passing Yards
186
234
Comp/Att
23/30(77%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.02
Rushing Yards
112
76
Rush Attempts
30
16
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
54%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
8
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.24
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-10
-15
Sack EPA
-1.25
-2.76
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
47
--
Penalty EPA
-5.97
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+44
Home nfelo
1,471
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+58.7
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+43.5
Home QB Adjustment
+0.6
Away QB Adjustment
-42.9
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

T. Heinicke headshot

T. Heinicke

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-42.9
Value
Ptile
09/16
4.9
83
09/26
0.2
55
10/03
6.3
89
10/10
-5.1
19
10/17
-3.8
25
10/24
3.6
79
10/31
-5.4
17
11/14
0.0
54
11/21
3.4
77
11/29
-0.4
49
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Value
Ptile
09/19
8.7
94
09/26
0.9
61
10/04
-3.9
25
10/10
-5.4
17
10/17
4.0
80
10/24
7.2
91
11/07
-1.4
42
11/14
0.7
58
11/21
-3.2
29
11/25
3.5
78

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Raiders Defense
Commanders logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
23
26
Yards / Game
21
14
Passing Yards / Game
18
11
Rushing Yards / Game
11
15

EPA

EPA / Play
21
28
EPA / Pass
25
28
EPA / Rush
14
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
11
Interceptions / Game
21
32
Fumbles / Game
20
26
Turnover EPA / Game
12
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
16
4th Down Efficiency
22
32
RZ Efficiency
26
32
Raiders Offense vs Commanders Defense
Raiders logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
18
25
Yards / Game
8
22
Passing Yards / Game
2
22
Rushing Yards / Game
28
8

EPA

EPA / Play
19
27
EPA / Pass
15
25
EPA / Rush
28
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
10
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
32
11
Turnover EPA / Game
11
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
31
4th Down Efficiency
7
22
RZ Efficiency
29
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
1
W
L
O
09/26
-22
L
L
O
10/03
4
W
W
O
10/10
-11
L
L
O
10/17
-18
L
L
U
10/24
-14
L
L
U
10/31
-7
L
L
U
11/14
10
W
W
U
11/21
6
W
W
O
11/29
2
W
W
U
OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
9
W
W
U
09/26
3
W
L
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/10
-11
L
L
U
10/17
10
W
W
O
10/24
11
W
W
O
11/07
-7
L
L
U
11/14
-27
L
L
O
11/21
-19
L
L
U
11/25
3
W
W
O