WASCommanders
4-9
20
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
028
LARRams
6-7
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
0
7
13
20
Rams
3
10
7
8
28
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
297
447
Total Plays
58
74
Yards / Play
5.1
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.05
Passing Yards
218
249
Comp/Att
19/36(53%)
25/33(76%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.10
Rushing Yards
79
198
Rush Attempts
21
38
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
23
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
21%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.99
-9.22
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-9
Sack EPA
-1.03
-5.14
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
28
36
Penalty EPA
-4.98
-6.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+168
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+34.0
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-35.3
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
+8.1
Net QB Adjustment
+7.3
Home QB Adjustment
+17.0
Away QB Adjustment
+9.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
S. Howell
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
+9.7
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
18
Yards / Game
24
18
Passing Yards / Game
6
29
Rushing Yards / Game
26
13
EPA
EPA / Play
26
21
EPA / Pass
26
19
EPA / Rush
10
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
26
Interceptions / Game
30
24
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
2
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
16
4th Down Efficiency
10
24
RZ Efficiency
6
20
Rams Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
32
Yards / Game
7
32
Passing Yards / Game
12
7
Rushing Yards / Game
12
27
EPA
EPA / Play
11
32
EPA / Pass
7
32
EPA / Rush
8
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
2
Interceptions / Game
18
29
Fumbles / Game
3
13
Turnover EPA / Game
23
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
26
4th Down Efficiency
5
29
RZ Efficiency
8
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Rams
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U