WASCommanders
2-1
19
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
043
NOSaints
3-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
10
0
6
19
Saints
6
20
14
3
43
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
283
447
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
4.6
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.28
Passing Yards
244
349
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
26/29(90%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
12.0
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.67
Rushing Yards
39
98
Rush Attempts
18
33
Yards / Rush
2.2
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
27
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
31%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
67%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-13.63
-5.28
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-31
-14
Sack EPA
-9.04
+0.35
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
38
45
Penalty EPA
-6.39
+2.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+162
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+42.5
Base HFA
+56.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.1
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+12.7
Home QB Adjustment
+20.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.0
Market Regression
-29.6
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
14
Yards / Game
28
12
Passing Yards / Game
26
17
Rushing Yards / Game
17
2
EPA
EPA / Play
25
11
EPA / Pass
28
21
EPA / Rush
12
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
30
Interceptions / Game
23
15
Fumbles / Game
3
7
Turnover EPA / Game
16
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
23
4th Down Efficiency
17
7
RZ Efficiency
24
23
Saints Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
15
Yards / Game
8
17
Passing Yards / Game
21
19
Rushing Yards / Game
9
16
EPA
EPA / Play
2
21
EPA / Pass
2
15
EPA / Rush
13
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
12
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
13
10
Turnover EPA / Game
23
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
29
4th Down Efficiency
2
2
RZ Efficiency
4
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Saints
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U