WASCommanders
3-4
17
TBD
Lumen Field
36°F
11 mph
14
SEASeahawks
5-2
TBD
Lumen Field
36°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
7
3
7
17
Seahawks
0
0
0
12
12
Spread
+8.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
244
437
Total Plays
60
77
Yards / Play
4.1
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.24
Passing Yards
193
289
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
24/47(51%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.05
Rushing Yards
51
148
Rush Attempts
23
28
Yards / Rush
2.2
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.50
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.71
-8.58
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-54
-8
Sack EPA
-7.71
-1.69
Penalties
7
16
Penalty Yards
62
138
Penalty EPA
-4.42
-15.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model77.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+245
Home nfelo
1,606
Away nfelo
1,464
Home Field
+86.0
Base HFA
+56.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+17.2
Home QB Adjustment
+24.2
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
+5.7
Final Difference
215.5
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
9
Yards / Game
17
11
Passing Yards / Game
14
9
Rushing Yards / Game
28
20
EPA
EPA / Play
25
8
EPA / Pass
14
6
EPA / Rush
29
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
10
Interceptions / Game
17
14
Fumbles / Game
25
9
Turnover EPA / Game
6
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
16
4th Down Efficiency
6
15
RZ Efficiency
17
6
Seahawks Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
27
Yards / Game
15
22
Passing Yards / Game
9
15
Rushing Yards / Game
23
32
EPA
EPA / Play
19
13
EPA / Pass
13
8
EPA / Rush
24
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
12
Interceptions / Game
13
9
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
25
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
7
4th Down Efficiency
7
23
RZ Efficiency
12
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Seahawks
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U