WASCommanders
4-5
19
TBD
Nissan Stadium
66°F
12 mph
16
TENTitans
5-4
TBD
Nissan Stadium
66°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Commanders
7
3
3
3
3
19
Titans
1
3
3
3
0
10
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
465
373
Total Plays
86
51
Yards / Play
5.4
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.07
Passing Yards
358
222
Comp/Att
30/50(60%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.00
Rushing Yards
107
151
Rush Attempts
33
25
Yards / Rush
3.2
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
32
15
Passing 1st downs
23
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
50%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.31
-7.95
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-5
Sack EPA
-4.07
-1.54
Penalties
3
11
Penalty Yards
--
81
Penalty EPA
--
-9.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+193
Home nfelo
1,542
Away nfelo
1,420
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+20.6
Home QB Adjustment
+6.7
Away QB Adjustment
-14.0
Market Regression
-26.4
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-14.0
V. Young
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
15
Yards / Game
17
26
Passing Yards / Game
4
32
Rushing Yards / Game
30
20
EPA
EPA / Play
28
21
EPA / Pass
25
22
EPA / Rush
19
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
26
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
22
31
Turnover EPA / Game
9
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
29
4th Down Efficiency
12
7
RZ Efficiency
20
3
Titans Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
22
Yards / Game
28
31
Passing Yards / Game
29
31
Rushing Yards / Game
17
25
EPA
EPA / Play
14
12
EPA / Pass
16
26
EPA / Rush
28
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
5
Interceptions / Game
13
19
Fumbles / Game
28
10
Turnover EPA / Game
17
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
8
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
10
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-4-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U