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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ titans week 11, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
4-5
19
TBD
Nissan Stadium
66°F
12 mph
16
TENTitans
5-4
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
66°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Commanders
7
3
3
3
3
19
Titans
1
3
3
3
0
10

Spread

WAS logo
+7

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
465
373
Total Plays
86
51
Yards / Play
5.4
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.07
Passing Yards
358
222
Comp/Att
30/50(60%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.00
Rushing Yards
107
151
Rush Attempts
33
25
Yards / Rush
3.2
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
32
15
Passing 1st downs
23
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
50%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.31
-7.95
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-5
Sack EPA
-4.07
-1.54
Penalties
3
11
Penalty Yards
--
81
Penalty EPA
--
-9.05

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+192
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,419
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+20.6
Home QB Adjustment
+6.7
Away QB Adjustment
-14.0
Market Regression
-26.4
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

D. McNabb headshot

D. McNabb

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-14.0
Value
Ptile
01/09
-3.7
26
09/12
-1.9
37
09/19
6.7
90
09/26
1.4
57
10/03
-1.6
39
10/10
-1.9
38
10/17
-3.5
26
10/24
-6.1
13
10/31
-4.1
24
11/15
-2.2
34
V. Young headshot

V. Young

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Value
Ptile
12/20
2.8
68
12/25
-5.4
17
01/03
-3.8
25
09/12
3.1
70
09/19
-7.4
8
09/26
-1.6
39
10/03
0.2
50
10/10
-0.7
45
10/18
-3.5
26
10/31
4.7
81

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Titans Defense
Commanders logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
25
15
Yards / Game
17
26
Passing Yards / Game
4
32
Rushing Yards / Game
30
20

EPA

EPA / Play
28
21
EPA / Pass
25
22
EPA / Rush
19
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
26
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
22
31
Turnover EPA / Game
9
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
29
4th Down Efficiency
12
7
RZ Efficiency
20
3
Titans Offense vs Commanders Defense
Titans logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
16
22
Yards / Game
28
31
Passing Yards / Game
29
31
Rushing Yards / Game
17
25

EPA

EPA / Play
14
12
EPA / Pass
16
26
EPA / Rush
28
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
5
Interceptions / Game
13
19
Fumbles / Game
28
10
Turnover EPA / Game
17
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
8
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
10
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
4-4-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-3
L
P
O
09/12
6
W
W
U
09/19
-3
L
L
O
09/26
-14
L
L
O
10/03
5
W
W
U
10/10
3
W
W
U
10/17
-3
L
P
O
10/24
3
W
W
U
10/31
-12
L
L
O
11/15
-31
L
L
O
TEN logo

Titans

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
4
W
L
U
09/12
25
W
W
O
09/19
-8
L
L
U
09/26
19
W
W
U
10/03
-6
L
L
O
10/10
7
W
W
O
10/18
27
W
W
U
10/24
18
W
W
O
10/31
-8
L
L
O
11/14
-12
L
L
O